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Sally Vix
RE: The S&P 500 will average a 6% or greater rate of return ofer the next 15 years - true or false?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:


Sally Vix wrote:


sp2 wrote:


Ghost of Igloi wrote:


đź’©upperdecker wrote:

Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities


S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.


Not entirely sure what your point is, but in any case it's tremendously undermined by the dual facts that:

1. Your number's way off.

2. Even if it wasn't, it'd still be massively misleading, by purposely cherry-picking a period that starts precisely at the point of the most ridiculous broad-market overvaluation in the last 90 years.


Igy always picks 2000 as his starting pt. because the next three years were terrible ones. It is ridiculous how he picks that one date but he does so continually. The market has returned 400% since 2009 but you will never see him talk about that. His favorite mutual fund of all time has had 9 losing years in the last 10 but he still touts it as the best ever.


Sally on the other hand prefers to use 130 years of market history. For one, none of you will live that long, unless you are a vampire. Second, this country is very different today, GDP at 2% growth, versus the greater than 4% in the post WWII period. You would be wise to model the last 20 years than the historical equity returns of a much longer period. You’ll learn the hard way that what I say is correct if you follow Sally’s advice.


Igy - I already provided the returns of each decade for the last 120 years. Each decade has done remarkably except for the 2000 to 2009.

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