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RE: Run a 1k time trial. That's your marathon time. Change my mind!
It depends on whether you're mostly fast twitch or mostly slow twitch. Fast twitch will have fast 1k times and slow twitch will have faster marathon times than this formula predicts.

In my case, I could have probably run 3:00 or so 1,000m in my prime, but my best 13.1 miles was only 1:30. I doubt if I could have ever gone under 3:20 in the marathon.

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