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Sally Vix
RE: The S&P 500 will average a 6% or greater rate of return ofer the next 15 years - true or false?

Prognosticator wrote:

Yeah, the reason for the post was that we’ve historically averaged what - like 7% if you look at over a long enough period?

But we are in the midst (at the tail end?) of the longest bull market in history, and it makes wondering about the medium term kind of interesting.


No, we have averaged much better than that - over the last 110 years the Dow has averaged 11% (with dividends reinvested). To see how great of an investment it is versus CDs, we will look at the real rates of return (meaning inflation-adjusted)).

The real rates of return are considerably lower since they take into account rates of inflation. If you look at the last 30 years, CDs have real rates of return of 1% versus over 7% for the S&P.

https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-59f49526b2d77658e5f6a5a377eacec5.pdf

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