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Ghost of Igloi
RE: Heading Down the Dow

Racket wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Igy, good to hear about your wife, let’s hope there is no trounle with infection. Invasive surgeries always have risk.

Us youngsters! I’m no longer young, and haven’t been for a while...but the realities of the “markets” cannot be ignored. Everything I have been saying for years, which used to be dismissed as paranoia, is now going mainstream, and is becoming accepted as the new normal in business, finance, governance, and banking.

Again neither intrinsically good nor bad, just different. Speculation exists on a continuum, but always has one element: events are beyond one’s control. The spectrum is one of predictability—and IMO for years the aggregate markets have been very predictable, with the fed jog a transient anomaly that was rather quickly corrected. The only reason that I have been out has been because I was pursuing other opportunities, and because I wanted to reduce my risk.

But at this point, the risk of being out approaches the risk of being in. Being out is speculative, especially when you consider the alternatives outside the markets.

What I tell perma-bears (and sometimes Igy) is that the we're in a new world now and there's not gonna be a move back to pre-2008 interest rate levels or pre-2008 monetary policy. It's just not going to happen. Out with the old, in with the new. The bears insist we have to get back to "normal Fed funds interest rates" and "normal xyz" but this is the new normal now. Maybe in 10 years their will be another "new normal"

Having been at this longer than you, I recalll the same beliefs in 2000 and 2007.

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