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Ghost of Igloi
RE: Heading Down the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Greetings to all!

Back in USA now, back in markets. Missed all but 5% of the recent rise, I had money deployed elsewhere. One bright spot was HON, which I bought at the bottom because I know something about their operations...regardless of the smoke the CEO was blowimg yesterday on the TV, they are cheap—which IMO is a good idea in this environment.

Yes they do buybacks but who doesn’t. Also they are not really a leader, but a supporter—kind of like a diverse industrial utility...a safer zone with less capex ratio. Worrisome to see the CEO making the rounds, I might sell it soon.

Did a large broad-spectrum S&P buy 2 weeks ago, tech-heavy with lots of AMZN, very little NFLX...also some financials. Trade evolution, no more rate increases and maybe decreases, and an end to QT and likely new QE will float this shxt, same as before. Buybacks are still legal and inflate EPS. You think prices are high now? They are always high.

Been around, and I continue to ask: if not the US equity markets, then where do you park money without actually having to set up a business? I have parked a bunch in europe in certain things, but as I said before, everybody is all-in in the US market.

Nice to hear the tone of this board changing a bit. Fundamentals, meh. Confidence and power are what matter. I will ride this market out until the big events have passed, then will re-evaluate, maybe making some tweaks along the way. I think my overseas stuff will do well in the future, but in the short term I would have done better to have BTFD at its bottom—or to have bought more HON than I did.

In other news, I had my first real track workout in years on Saturday. It was great!!!! Of course paid for it Sunday and Monday, but no injury or tweaks. Now I can start building speed, the fun part. It’s a new day, with some insane early-season performances on the track, and market indexes edging predictably higher. Going to be a great summer, good luck to all!


Maserati,

Welcome back. Good to see you back running as well. In regards to the market FOMO is back. In Boise you really see it in the real estate market. There was a 967 square foot 1950s piece of crap in a less desirable neighborhood listed at $285,000. I suppose in 2010 it may have garnered $90k. My personal house I purchased in 2013 would list about 55% higher today. So the same delusion that fuels the stock and bond market is alive and well in both the commercial and residential real estate markets. The growth in multi-family housing (apartments) in our area is unreal. Anyone that thinks it is not overbuilt needs to rethink their thinking. Just hot money seeking a return above Treasuries. Hey real estate always goes up! How quickly people forget? Big fallacy to believe it continues unabated, but I do agree with your theory that there is a lot at stake to keep the bubble inflated. A collapse will threaten the money power structure that pumped the bubble and manipulates the masses. I have sixteen months until retirement so sticking with my conservative approach and will let you youngsters trade the market.

Igy

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