Lip Kitten wrote:
You had me convinced that something wasn't right with those splits from an older race (was it 2015?) but I calculated splits from the LA marathon, 3/24 and they don't seem out of line. Looks like he had a bit left in the tank and really pushed the last 5k. Aside from the complete impossibility of any 70 yr old running this fast (LOL!), the splits seem totally reasonable. Please check my work. I calculated the last column, the other columns including pace/mile are from the LA marathon results page.
5K 20:02 20:50 6:27 /mi 20.02
10K 40:19:00 41:07:00 6:29 /mi 20.17
15K 1:00:52 1:01:40 6:32 /mi 20.33
20K 1:22:13 1:23:01 6:37 /mi 21.21
25K 1:42:15 1:43:03 6:35 /mi 20.02
30K 2:03:38 2:04:26 6:38 /mi 21.23
35K 2:24:22 2:25:10 6:38 /mi 20.44
40K 2:44:09 2:44:57 6:36 /mi 19.47
If you look at the splits by pace for each 5k separately, there is a larger discrepancy.
0-5k: 6:27 /mi 20:02
5-10K: 6:31 /mi 20:17
10-15K: 6:37 /mi 20.33
15-20K: 6:52 /mi 21:21
20-25K 6:27 /mi 20:02
25-30K 6:53 /mi 21:23
30-35K 6:40 /mi 20:44
35-40K 6:22 /mi 19:47
It would be interesting to see mile-by-mile splits to see if there is an even bigger discrepancy in pacing.
The rule of thumb for people running marathons in the three hour range is that half marathon pace is about 20 seconds faster per mile than marathon pace. For people on this board who are familiar with what these differing paces feel like, Meza's pacing differential appears incredible.