Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes, valuations matter. But they are not the only metric that affects the markets. This is why Ghost’s myopic view is flawed. Valuations have been high for years, yet the markets have set new records. Eventually the markets will fall, but it will not be valuations alone that cause that. It’s just not as simple as Ghost would have us believe.
History is cited often in this thread as the one truth regarding the markets. If one believes that history will repeat itself and one has a reasonably long investment horizon, then the best course of action is to stay invested in equities (buy and hold).
I actually believe in most of what you have written. However, I believe valuations are much more informative than your view, just not as a market timing mechanism.
Tell us how valuations are informative. They certainly have not been very good at predicting a market downfall.