Bravo Sir wrote:
Yes I think you can but you may need to change up your sessions a bit. 55 miles a week is probably enough in my experience but it doesn't sound like you have enough variation. As well as a speed session and a long run (I'm assuming the rest are easy miles) you need some tempo/progression/fartlek runs in there. I just ran sub 3 for the first time in Dublin a fortnight ago (previous best was 3:25) and the longer higher paced runs really helped. Some example sessions:
Progression 1 - 10 mins @ Marathon pace, 10 mins @ HM pace, 10 mins @ 10k pace, 10mins @ 5k pace
Progression 2 - 20 mins @ Marathon pace, 45 mins @ HM pace, 15 mins @ 10k pace
Fartlek 1 - 15 x 1min @ 5k pace, 1min @ Marathon pace
Fartlek 2 - 8 x 4min @ 5k pace, 2min @ Marathon pace
Long run 1 - Run the last 4 miles @ HM pace
Long run 2 - Run all at marathon pace (2 or 3 weeks out)
Another thing that helped for me (may not be an option for you) is that I shed 15lbs from the start of the year. A general guide is a 2 second per lb per mile improvement (assuming you're still at a safe weight) which equates to 13 mins for a marathon. So I reckon half was down to improved training and half was down to weight loss.
In terms of other distances, here are the times I think you should be targeting in order to know you are on for a sub 3 (btw you are almost there with the 10k time):
5k - 18:00
10k - sub 38:00
HM - 1:24
I think that progression 2 is too much and bordering on a race effort... But I agree you need more tempo work in there.
Yeah ... Progression 2 is a bit much. I would prefer to just see a half marathon tune-up race instead, which would be at the same level and ALSO be an excellent race prediction data point.
Meanwhile, OP - I think your training and race results suggest that you have the speed/potential, but given the falloff from your 10k to the 10 miler and half times you need just a bit more mileage (maybe 10%), but a real focus on longer tempo (threshold) type efforts. Adding a second hard workout day per week or even every other week would give you a lot more opportunity to shore up those bits.
You’ll probably kick the snot out of your PR, though - you sound like you’re lined up for a great race!