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HS Analysis
RE: Historians, who is the greatest female HS distance runner in US history? Could it already be Katelyn Tuohy?
I think the first, and most obvious, comparison here is to compare Mary Cain’s prs vs Tuohy

Mary Cain- 1:59, 4:04, 8:58, 9:38(i), 15:45

Katelyn Tuohy- 2:09, 4:14, 9:05, 9:51(c), 15:37(i)

A couple of factors to consider here. Katelyn is much, much much better at Cross Country. Over 10+ speed ratings better. Also, every single one of Katelyn’s prs came in a race she won at the highschool level. Cain obviously ran most of her best times with competition. I think it’s hard to compare the two for this reason.

With that said, I don’t think Katelyn could run anywhere near 4:04 or 1:59 with competition, but she could be maybe 4:10 and 2:06. That’s still a long ways off Cain. Right now, I would say Katelyn will probably end being the XC goat while Cain will probably still be the track GOAT( an argument could be made for Efraimson as well, which I will detail below.).

Another contender for the best ever overall would be Alexa Efraimson, who ran 2:01/4:03/9:00. Again, all with competition. She was also, unlike Cain, a Gatorade runner of the year in XC. However, when you compare her best speed rating in XC to Katelyn’s, she’s still almost 7 points off( 165 to 172). Plus, Katelyn ran 172 multiple times. However, she’s closer in credentials in XC where her track times may be enough better to overcome any XC differentials. I would say Efraimson overall is the high school GOAT( including XC/ track).

It should be pointed out that Katelyn has taken a very different approach to track than those two did. She hasn’t been able to optimize her times as much because she’s winning everything. So, that should be acknowledge also.

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