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sojourner troof
RE: Official 2017 Chicago Marathon Live Discussion Thread

Diagonal Crossing wrote:

Well done Sir Rupp-

Rupp now has a

1) Baller mile time -3:50i
2) Legit all-world 10k pr of 26:44
3) Collection of Olympic hardware
4) Major marathon victory

His career is basically unparalled for a US born runner. But... it would be great to see Rupp add these notches

1) Gold in Oly-World Champs marathon. Rupp has a knack for competing well in less than ideal conditions in the marathon. Kimetto, Kipchoge, Kipsang, and Bekele are all entering the twilight of their marathon careers. The Ethiopian randos who go 2:04 at Dubai every year rarely show up at the global events. Rupp will have four chances at global gold between now and 2021 when he will still only be 35. I'd put the odds on Rupp eventually winning global gold at 50/50 , maybe even slightly higher.

3. Run a really, really fast marathon. Rupp was obviously capable of 2:07 high today if conditions and pacing had been different. (Rupp is never going to front run a marathon. He's just not) However, Rupp needs to at least go sub 2:06:17? and preferably sub 2:04:58 to take the unquestioned title of fastest American Marathoner. For a 5-11 140 lb guy that is really moving. But.. Ryan Hall was basically the same build so no real reason to say 2:06 plus or minus is unachievable for Rupp.

I'd set the odds on Rupps final marathon PR as follows

2:08:xx - 95%
2:07:xx -80%
2:06:xx- 50%
2:05:xx - 40%
2:04:xx- 20%

3. Scalp one of Kipchoge, Kimetto, Bekele, Fatah, Kipsang, or Farah in a half or full marathon. Rupp has to win in a quality time and the greats have to finish in a quality time too for this to count. I think Rupp has a decent shot at this if he priortizes a run like Great North for 2018. Otherwise, maybe he combines this with earning a global gold.

Anyway, 4 marathons, 2 wins, 1 Olympic medal, and 2 sub 2:10s ain't half bad.

Blah blah... race & win New York, a challenging course and against a REAL field, then we'll talk. And don't evade the subject either.

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