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Maserati
RE: Down goes the Dow...but when?

Ghost of 29 wrote:

I sense a sort of shaky inductive argument that since the bubble hasn't burst in the past few years then it won't burst in the future. If anything, because it hasn't burst, it is more likely to burst in the near future. It is this way of thinking that will earn a small class of investors a tidy sum of money. The shaky inductive reasoning is what will cost the rest of the herd a tidy sum of money.


29-- I sense a sort of shaky inductive argument that since the bubble hasn't burst in the past few years then it is more likely to burst in the near future.

Inductive reasoning relies on the premises used. You have omitted a great many in your hasty statement, notably any and all that explain why the bubble hasn't burst in the past few years.

As demonstrated, any such hasty statement is worth pretty much nothing; at the very least, it is worth substantially less than one that uses a broader spectrum of premises.

So what are your ideas about why the bubble hasn't burst in the past few years? Try to be objective and not reason backwards from the conclusion that you have articulated. Genuinely interested, not being a dick.

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