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RE: Since Murphy > Centro: How much would Murphy have won the 1500 by?
I think you're being a tad over optimistic at this stage re Murphy.
The history books are littered with athletes who ran their fastest in an Olympic final at a young age, and never improved on that. Amos is a good case in point.

I think too many on here Consider a 1:42 flat as something that is easily achieved. History has shown that only 5 guys have met that.
I don't think Murphy will break 1:42.5 next year, but if he can consolidate with a 1:43 flat, then a 1:42 flat is a possibility.

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