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Ghost of Igloi
RE: Interesting
Good Morning,

I find it interesting that John Hussman, or anyone that has a more measured view of the stock market, generates such emotional responses. Yet few here criticize or see the duplicity in the numbers and analysis coming from Wall Street. For this example I will use the more generous non-GAAP accounting. Last Twelve Months non-GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share for Q1 2016 is $98.61. Currently Wall Street estimates LTM per shares earnings for 2016 at $114.64. That number was projected at $118.12 on 3/31/2016, $125.56 on 12/31/2015, $129.37 on 9/30/2015, $132.36 on 6/30/2015 and $135.03 on 3/31/2015.

The current non-GAAP earnings for Q1 2016 is $23.97, so to reach the 2016 number of $114.64, the next three quarter earnings must average $30.22 to reach that number. Speaking of facts, the highest quarterly non-GAAP quarter ever was $29.60 for Q3 2014 (LTM non-GAAP EPS peaked that quarter at $114.51). Wall Street estimates for 2017 non-GAAP EPS is $134.47.

Keep in mind I am not even making comparison to S&P 500 index values or PE levels. So for those dreaming of an earnings recovery it appears to be more fantasy and hopium than tied to non-GAAP or GAAP EPS for that matter.

You want some facts, there are the facts.


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