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RE: Down goes the Dow
Regarding myself, I would hardly call getting out 3 times over 28 years, "crazy". Especially since each time has worked out well for me.

Flagpole, I respect your position on these things, I only wish you would understand that position as well as I understand it.

Look at the behavior of the markets from 1995 onward, and compare it to behavior from, say, 1975 to 1995. Make a best-fit line for 1975-1995, project it to 2015, and you get a Dow of around 7,500.

After 1995, everything changes. Lower unemployment, tighter fiscal policy, and the rise of the Web. The RATE of "steady-state" increase soars.

Q: how much of this was due to structural economic improvements, and how much was due to mere novelty that might now be wearing off?

And will the markets "retain the gain" that they experienced, or will they return to levels consistent with the prior trajectory, in effect making the novelty effect merely transitory?

These are important issues, and how one answers them has a role in determining at what point one "buys into" the market, and to what extent, and what in particular is purchased.

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