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reed
Will Emma Coburn follow suit in Lausanne with an AR?
I've looked at a few of Coburn's steeple splits and compared them to others'. I think she will win in Lausanne. She is #2 in the world right now, from the 9:15 at USAs. It's worth noting that Coburn split 3:12, 3:06, 2:57 at USAs, while the current world lead of 9:15 set by Jepkemoi was run with splits of 3:08, 3:07, 3:00. I think Coburn's run was more impressive, especially considering it was run in some hot weather (full disclosure, I don't know what the weather was in Rome for Jepkemoi's WL)

Anybody have additional thoughts? Any reason to think Coburn will not win?

She loses if :
1. she has a bad day (or hits a barrier lol) and
2. if the pace is 9:15+ and nyambura or ayalew sit and kick. (more likely)

I'd like to see the race play out like this: rabbit goes through 1000 in 3:03, then drops sometime before 2800m. coburn takes the lead, runs a 3:04 second kilometer for 6:07 at 2k, the fastest she's ever split. at this point only one of either nyambura or ayalew will be with her. Obviously, they won't make the mistake of letting Coburn go like in Beijing 2014, but I think they won't be capable of closing the gap in the last 400m.

prediction: coburn 9:09 WL, MR, AR, nyambura 9:11, ayalew 9:16

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