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Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
RE: Kenyan 4 x 1500 Not A Lock For Gold

LM wrote:

How is it dangerous in anyway. Kiprop doesn't even have to lead if he doesn't have a gap. He can just cruise 2:55 or so and kick a 37 or 38 and win easy.

I think you are really underestimating how good Kiprop is.

F me.

Of course Kenya is the heavy favorite. I'm betting on them to win. Kiprop is one of the best ever. I'm aware of that.

What makes you think he's just going to cruise to a 3:32, though? You think someone is foolish enough to run 2:55 through 1200 with him sitting right behind them? God I really hope not. That would be embarrassing.

Again, I fully expect Kenya to win. It's their race to lose. But it's not as simple as 4 guys going out and running 3:30 and blowing the other countries apart. They can't run that fast without a pack breaking the wind for them the first 1200 or so meters.

This is a time trial with one country versus ALL the other countries. Nobody will run fast if a Kenyan is on their heels, unless it's in the last 200 meters or they are complete idiots. So, if somehow Kiprop does not have a massive lead, and gets the baton last, the other countries should literally jog if Kiprop refuses to lead. Then it comes down to everybody racing the last 300 meters. Is Kiprop the fastest 300 meter runner out there? Probably not.

My guess is Kenya gets out to a sizeable lead within the first 800 meters. They are not stupid and must realize the sooner they create space the better. And the other countries probably don't quite understand how different an event like this is from a typical 1500, so are already defeated mentally. I'm only hoping the USA gets that it's not so cut and dry when it comes to a relay like this. It's hard for a rabbit to win. Although, if they're racing a bunch of turtles...

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