Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
Actually, the smarter thing is to NOT run Kiprop first.
Let's say the Kenyans run one of their other guys first. Even if he gets drafted off of and loses the lead in the last 100-200m, the result is another 3:29-3:30 Kenyan who now has a rabbit. The second Kenyan uses the lead runner as a rabbit for 2-2.5 laps, and then crushes him, which shouldn't be particularly difficult, considering no other runners in the field running Leg 2 should have any abilities even comparable to 3:29.
At that point, the necessary gap will be present, and the Kenyans glide to victory. Alternatively, if the necessary gap isn't made, then the runners just stay together until the final leg. At that point, you throw in Kiprop, and it's victory.
Alternatively, the Kenyans can simply let someone else lead and cover each move that's made during the race, which really shouldn't be hard for 3:30 guys running against 3:34 guys. And of course, at the end, you just have a 1500m race with Kiprop running for the Kenyan team.
Who is stupid enough to run 100% if they have a Kenyan sitting on them? Of course the answer to that is probably a lot of elite athletes considering runners aren't the most tactically astute bunch. You have to slow way down if a Kenyan is sitting on you. You have to force the Kenyans to lead this. There is no other way, outside of them falling, dropping the baton, etc.
If you are the Kenyan coach and want the race to be even at the last hand off and leave it up to Kip, that's very dangerous. When is the last time he led a race wire-to-wire? And what did he run? I doubt he could break 3:32 in this race without ever having a rabbit or pack to draft. Sub 3:32 is phenomenal without any drafting.[/quote]
How is it dangerous in anyway. Kiprop doesn't even have to lead if he doesn't have a gap. He can just cruise 2:55 or so and kick a 37 or 38 and win easy.
I think you are really underestimating how good Kiprop is.