As a matter of fact, Meb is looking the most like a sure bet. Here would be my list, but this could change drastically after Boston, which has a large contingent of Americans lining up. And I still think there is an 80% chance that Galen Rupp debuts in LA 2016 -
THE CONTENDERS TO THE THRONE
I agree that Rupp could run it.
You have a 40 year old Meb making the team? That would be amazing. I guess Lagat is kicking as at 39 but you'd think Father time would win eventually.
You have Hall as a dark horse?
I would put Hall in the top category. Yes the last two years haven't been pretty but he won't be 40.
I would switch Hall and Meb on your list