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Renato Canova
RE: Haile G bold prediction: ""Kebede is the one to beat, no question."
1) All the best athletes this year are in very good shape, while last year Kenyans were out of shape because there were two and half months of continue rain, not allowing athletes to have a good training.

2) The pace will be very fast, but with Haile pacing, very even, too. This means that 61:45 can have a cost not very high. Under the point of view of how much fuel athletes use for running, it's very much more important to analyze HOW a time comes, than the time itself.
For example, when we go for the final test of lactate, using 6 x 2000m with less than one minute recovery, at increasing speed (6'15" / 6'10" / 6'05" / 6' / 5'55" / 5'50"), if the pace for every test is totally even (in this case we use acustic rabbits, with a bip every 25 meters at the requested speed) we have a real picture of the situation, but if we do the same test without acustic rabbit, and there is some mistake in the ditribution (for example, 6' must be 5 times 72" : if the first lap is 69", and after we have 3 laps in 74", and after we have again the last lap in 69"), the final time is the same, but the level of lactate is significantly higher.

3) In the past, we had some crazy split (the year of Sammy Wanjiru), but with the first 10 km really too fast, situation I don't think we can see again with Haile in front.

4) With this speed, a normal leading Group can be composed in the following way : Wilson Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai, Emmanuel Mutai, Stanley Biwott, Stephen Kiprotich (he wants to go with the leaders), Tsegaye Kebede, Mekonnen Tsegaye (but he's with the leaders only for growing in experience).

5) May be very difficult to respect the real difference of speed between first and second Group. If at the end of the first half we want 30" of gap between the two groups, inside the race this means about 8 meters of difference every km, and normally this never happens. Knowing the personal tension every pacer has, the second Group has only two chances : a) going together with the first (in this case also Mo and Samuel Tsegay run under 62') or b) trying from the beginning to have more gap (in this case 62:15 can become closer 63:00).

6) Due to this high speed, at even pace, I think nobody wants (or can) try to create a sudden gap running 2-3 km at crazy speed (like Wilson did in the past). I think more logic that, after 30 km, front runners such as Geoffrey (remember Boston 2011...), Wilson, Tsegaye Kebede and Emmanuel Mutai start to push progressively their speed. In my opinion, this is the last Group of runners staying together, with some chance for Stanley Biwott till 5 km from the end.

7) Weather conditions seem to be very much better than last year. For those reason, I think possible to see 2-3 athletes under 2:04 at the end of the race.

8) If the race can follow this development, I think Mo can't have any chance for going on the podium. His realistic goal is to destroy the National record. And, of course, running 10000m in the next WCh 2015 and OG 2016 can remain his priority, because of sure he doesn't look at the Marathon when there are titles to win.

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