I finally opened this thread and upon discovering there was no discussion of the DOW in the "Down Goes the Dow" thread, I'll start one.
The January Barometer has an excellent record of forecasting the market direction for the entire year. With only five trading days left, the Dow and the S&P 500 seem very likely to close down for the month. Both are down by more than 5%.
The January early barometer (first five trading days) was mixed with the DOW down and the S&P 500 up.
I don't know if the party is over yet, but the single biggest driving force in the market has been QE for some time now. Since QE is politics, who knows what's going to happen there.
Also, gold has made an interesting move. It's up and gold mining shares are up, but the best move has come in the junior mining stocks. The GDXJ is up 20% since December 31st.
I felt that the bottom was near in junior gold stocks so I bought MUX (McEwen Mining) in December at 1.90 and it's now at 2.63 as I type this.
Any thoughts on the market? Gold?
1. The 'january barometer' does not have an excellent record of forecasting - it is almost worthless. If you look at the next 11 months after the stock market has a negative January...the average 11 month return is positive.
2. Markets are not down 5%, except for the emerging markets. Depending on the index, they are down 3-4%.
3. No one really knows the impact of QE on the stock market,. Impossible to quantify. But the economy has been improving by almost all measures, and the stock market it up. Those two things cannot be a coincidence.
I think this will be a slow year - probably up 5%. Because valuations are high and things aren't so good that back to back bonanzas are likely. But predictions are worthless.