survey says wrote:
According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.
Just eyeballing that data, it looks like the bias has increased in recent years. NY has moved away from the paced time-trial style race that has become the norm for many faster races, so the style of racing may be nearly as much a factor as the terrain. In any case 46 seconds seems low, I'd guess closer to 2 minutes for the elites. The forecast conditions for this year look to be very good, so I expect we're about to find out what's possible there.