The semifinals for the 5000 will be starting here in about an hour and a half. How does everybody think they'll play out? If the USA can get 3 guys to the final it would be a miracle, but Lagat should make it and Rupp ha an 80% chance I would say.
Barring injury or a fall Rupp has a 99% chance. Including the probability of aforementioned unfortunate event leaves his chances at precisely 93.76%