Cool thread. Historical data had the best response. Ive been thinking about this since outdoor 2021.
My guess is almost identical to historical data's.
Imo, most likely is Sherry. He solo'd a 4:03 as a junior, and he's a miler at heart.
Sahlman, and to a much lesser extent the 3 NP juniors have a shot, but NP almost always focuses on the 3200 and I think this year theyll be focusing on it even more with so many guys that could get the record. I think they'll need multiple good mile races to try it at.
Harrison and martin looked really good for it last year but they did fall off quite a bit during XC. Rheinhardt really just needs a healthy, full season imo, whereas Martin really needs a jump in fitness.
Hough is in the same boat as the NP junior trio. More of a 3200 guy, not too fast last year in the mile. (Though he did say his main goal was to go sub 4)
Bergen is probably second most likely. 4:03 last year, hes at altitude, good school with good training, if anything maybe hes more likely than sherry or sahlman.