He could run sub 15 but you are probably correct that he woukd I nly run 16 minutes because of improper pacing.
This thread is even worse than most with the absolutely silly predictions of 18 or 19 or 20 minutes. There are millions of 15 and 16 minute guys in the world who could run 19 minutes if this situation applied to them. Look at this article and maybe you will rethink how fast a poor farmer from Kenya who is an untrained world class runner could go if offered $1000 to race a 10 year old girl. If you say anything over 17 minutes, you should be banned.