These are constantly updated and even the worst countries are predicted to be finished with the pandemic by early september. Could this mean that boston can happen and berlin jumped the gun?
These are constantly updated and even the worst countries are predicted to be finished with the pandemic by early september. Could this mean that boston can happen and berlin jumped the gun?
Berlin sure. My guess is by fall, covid-19 will be done everywhere but the US, so Boston probably out. I hope I'm wrong, but US case numbers seem to show no sign of slowing and testing is less than half what it needs to be. US is at a million now.
It is reasonable to assume that Covid-19 will go away this spring and not return. This is because it is similar to SARS (2003) and typically these coronaviruses behave like this. Dr. Fauci is an exceptional medical doctor, I always listen to my doctor, but he and my doctors have been very wrong in the past. So yes by September we could, I say could not will, be back to normal by then.
Berlin was already cancelled unfortunately. Maybe they're not confident they can control the situation yet which worries me about other races happening in the fall.
Light at the end of the tunnel might only mean that there is another train coming (the 2nd wave of Covid-19).
Covid-19 wrote:
Light at the end of the tunnel might only mean that there is another train coming (the 2nd wave of Covid-19).
Go away, sheep!
ftyjdt wrote:
It is reasonable to assume that Covid-19 will go away this spring and not return. This is because it is similar to SARS (2003) and typically these coronaviruses behave like this. Dr. Fauci is an exceptional medical doctor, I always listen to my doctor, but he and my doctors have been very wrong in the past. So yes by September we could, I say could not will, be back to normal by then.
You are very unreasonable
fhg wrote:
Covid-19 wrote:
Light at the end of the tunnel might only mean that there is another train coming (the 2nd wave of Covid-19).
Go away, sheep!
I think he's right.
The powers that be ain't done with reforming society by using fear of this invisible enemy just yet
You posted this hours ago. Away by spring? It's already spring.
It all depends on how Sweden fares in the coming months. Media of the whole world are jumping on them shaming them about their soft measures, but so far nothing catastrophic has happened. They have a slightly higher covid death rate per million, but nowhere near the end of the world. If they keep up avoiding real disaster with very soft limitations on social interaction and business, other governments would have a hard time justifying the lockdown.
spring equinox is in March wrote:
You posted this hours ago. Away by spring? It's already spring.
You might want to read his post a little closer before making a snide remark.
I'm still training and holding out hope for Chicago in October and I think it will be a go. Cook County currently has about 32,000 cases out of a population of 5.2 million, or about 1 in 161 people infected. New York City, on the other hand, currently has 1 in 52 people infected, triple the rate of Chicago.
...No
Chicago will be a go wrote:
spring equinox is in March wrote:
You posted this hours ago. Away by spring? It's already spring.
You might want to read his post a little closer before making a snide remark.
I'm still training and holding out hope for Chicago in October and I think it will be a go. Cook County currently has about 32,000 cases out of a population of 5.2 million, or about 1 in 161 people infected. New York City, on the other hand, currently has 1 in 52 people infected, triple the rate of Chicago.
Might want to rethink this. My county is approaching 1 in 1000 infected (out of a pop of a few million) and I'm already thinking I'm going to have to right off racing in the fall. New York is the only area doing enough testing, they are able to isolate and slow the spread, everywhere else the virus continues to spread because so few people are tested and thus ppl just assume they don't have it and don't isolate. By the end of May, other big cities will look a lot like New York (it will still be going there too).
ftyjdt wrote:
Dr. Fauci is an exceptional medical doctor, I always listen to my doctor, but he and my doctors have been very wrong in the past.
Pretty much sums up the profession. Witch doctors will witch doctor.
This model necessarily assumes that the current conditions remain in place perpetually. Unless herd immunity is achieved or the virus is completely eradicated, you can't model a curve and then expect it to hold once all of the underlying conditions are changed and society moves about and interacts much more readily.
I very much doubt Chicago will happen. Think about who is in charge at the state and local levels.
Modern Drunkard wrote:
I very much doubt Chicago will happen. Think about who is in charge at the state and local levels.
I think major marathons will be the last to come back. I don't fault/blame people for practicing caution rn. How does the US go from 1 million cases now to having a 30,000 person marathon in its 3rd largest city in 6 months? It could happen, sure, but so many people would be coming into the city. They would come into contact with tons of people on raceday. It's not simply good enough that runners are handling this thing a little better than most right now. It just takes one person in a corral or a volunteer and people will contract the virus. The races don't want that kind of liability.
I'm curious if local races will happen this fall & sports like cross country. Fields are smaller, more local, more controlled. If I were thinking about a fall marathon, I'd try to find something on the smaller side.
Agreed. I suspect large gatherings like big races will be out of question until next year. Even though outdoor transmission seems relatively low, races are just waaay too dense.
Harambe wrote:
Agreed. I suspect large gatherings like big races will be out of question until next year. Even though outdoor transmission seems relatively low, races are just waaay too dense.
Governor Cuomo discussed "common nuisance" during his press conference today. He also discussed there will not be a state fair in the summer. Even if a region of the state has low number of COVID cases they cannot hold events in one region that will bring in people from many other regions. The whole state has to open up for events to prevent one event, like the state fair, from drawing in record crowds from all the other regions. A road race that draws in thousands of runners and spectators from other states and other countries one of the most risky things to open up without an effective and widely distributed vaccine.
Agreed, NERunner. Your argument is very well stated. What I was getting at in my original post is that both Gov Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot have been following the advice of physicians and scientists to this point, and I have no doubts that they will continue to do so. Given the actions they have taken to protect Chicagoans and Illinoisans thus far, I cannot imagine a plausible scenario in which they will decide a major marathon that brings in participants from around the wold is a good idea or that it can be done safely. Mark it down now; Chicago is as good as cancelled.