What are the odds the Boston Marathon actually takes place in September?

2020 season is over. Both big city marathon's and the Diamond League. I hate saying it but I do not see any event of scale until 2021.

I thought about posting a similar thread about the chances of big fall marathons actually taking place.

At this point the chances of Boston taking place in the fall are about zero.

I'm signed up for Manchester (2nd biggest in UK, scheduled for October 11th). I still hold out hope that it will happen, at 6 months away it at least has a chance. But of course there's no way to know yet as it's too early to say either way. Anyone who thinks they know for certain is a narcissist in my opinion.

On a somewhat related note, I'm skeptical about this article, but I also like to remain optimistic, so if there's any chance at all that this woman who is "80 percent sure" is genuine, then that's reassuring at least, and it would mean all autumn marathons are definitely going ahead. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1269785/Coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-covid-19-cure-world-health-organisation

What do you think happens to the 2020 field if they cancel the race?

Will they allow people to defer to 2021? If the qualifying window still starts in Sept. 2019, there will only have been a few marathons people could have run a qualifier for (assuming the 2021 race still goes off in April!)

Maybe they'll do like the NYC marathon after Sandy and allow people to defer over a period of a few years?

So what do you do running wise? I'm kicking my butt to get out the door for workouts and maintain decent mileage but this is always in the back of my mind that its for nothing.

I feel this. Call me a hobbyjogger but Boston was my dream. I ran most of an awesome training block before the “postponement”. I decided to run a time trial marathon because I know that even on a terrible day I can run faster than my PR, and that way I can get more marathon experience (I’ve only done one so far). It’s been a grind the last month to do some of the hardest training knowing that I won’t line up in Hopkinton.

After my marathon time trial, I am going to switch to trail running. I’m going to use trail running to stay fit over the summer, maybe chase some strava segments or FKT’s.

Sadly, it looks less and less likely by the day.

Consider:

30,000 runners and 500,000 spectators.

The mass of humanity in Athlete's Village.

Spit, sweat and phlegm everywhere.

Water/Gatorade/Gu stops as germ central.

Not to mention public transportation of buses to Hopkinton + Boston area subways, buses, etc.

Regardless, I will be training for it whether it happens or not.

lost- wrote:

So what do you do running wise? I'm kicking my butt to get out the door for workouts and maintain decent mileage but this is always in the back of my mind that its for nothing.

I definitely am with you on this. I am signed up for Boston and also Toronto actually, but planned on switching to the half most likely after Boston. That being said, every day I lose more and more optimism and have been trying to accept the fact there will be zero races this year. Hell, maybe I'll just take a week off here soon and give my legs a break. I don't run crazy high LR standards mileage in a training block (usually between 65-75 average for a few months) and since it was officially announced I have just been doing about 50-53 a week mostly at easy pace but I am even starting to lose a bit of steam on that when I realize at some point I need to recover a bit and accept reality.

I'm not all that confident that Boston will happen, and kind of kicking myself for not just taking the refund. Not really psyched to go through another training cycle only to have the race cancelled again. IMO your best bet for racing is going to be small-ish trail races not on the East coast.

Then again, maybe things will change when we have an effective treatment approved, which doesn't seem far off. Certainly there's already increasing pressure to get back to normal before the economy is completely devastated.

Ho Hum wrote:

I'm not all that confident that Boston will happen, and kind of kicking myself for not just taking the refund. Not really psyched to go through another training cycle only to have the race cancelled again. IMO your best bet for racing is going to be small-ish trail races not on the East coast.

Then again, maybe things will change when we have an effective treatment approved, which doesn't seem far off. Certainly there's already increasing pressure to get back to normal before the economy is completely devastated.

Deadline for refund request is May 29. Go get your money if that's what you want. The other possibility is the refund is to 'thin the herd' and everyone else signed up gets a deferral to 2021, along with whoever was able to qualify in fall 2019, but I'd bet another $200 it won't happen in September.

"Get back to normal" doesn't mean enormous races, and even if a treatment/cure were found today approval, manufacture, and distribution of that cure would take months to make happen logistically.

The BAA and towns will bend over backwards to have the race go off on in September. It is all about the $241 million in estimated economic impact from marathon weekend

No chance at all of any major marathons happening in the US. Boston University already cancelled the fall SCHOOL schedule .

Here in Baltimore the mayor has said he has not even thought about the Balt running festival. He just wants to keep people safe and try to get them back to work.

This is a 25K person event and most likely will not happen - maybe forever.

Not going to happen. Neither are any of the other big city marathons around the world. Too many things need to be in place for them to happen.

The race might have to be canceled. But why hate on the BAA and the marathon? It's my favorite race. Are you just a hater in general?

Raysharp001 wrote:

The race might have to be canceled. But why hate on the BAA and the marathon? It's my favorite race. Are you just a hater in general?

You must be new here!

larsonba wrote:

No chance at all of any major marathons happening in the US. Boston University already cancelled the fall SCHOOL schedule .

.

Boston University has NOT cancelled Fall 2020 classes. Just like every other university is doing, they've said it is a *possibility*.

You haven’t been paying attention wrote:

Guywithaquestion wrote:

With guidelines released today, do you think the Boston Marathon will happen in September?

There will not be a single race this year. No road races, no XC season.

Wrong. Things have to open a will. Stop watching CNN and be real

truth hurts all the time wrote:

You haven’t been paying attention wrote:

There will not be a single race this year. No road races, no XC season.

Wrong. Things have to open a will. Stop watching CNN and be real

Dorkus. Even the conservative, restart-the-economy-NOW WSJ has a better handle on it than you:

Why a Second Wave Could Be Even Worse for Sports

The darkest shadow hanging over the future of sports, concerts and other mass gatherings is another spike in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths

"The September sports calendar is suddenly packed. In addition to the usual Saturdays and Sundays filled with college and professional football, the lineup now includes the Kentucky Derby, the Tour de France, two rescheduled marathons, golf tournaments and tennis Grand Slams. And that could deal another blow to an industry already reeling from the unprecedented disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic.

Those blockbuster sports events are scheduled right in time for a bigger problem: the second wave of the virus.

There has always been a second wave in the epidemics that have interrupted American life over the last century, from influenza to AIDS, and top infectious disease experts have been warning for weeks that history will likely repeat itself in the coronavirus pandemic.

The return of this new coronavirus is the darkest shadow hanging over the future of sports, concerts and every kind of mass gathering that was commonplace before. If there is no second wave, it would break a streak of centuries.

..."