To those praising Russia for only have 1 Covid-19 death 2 weeks ago, guess what. The sh** is hitting the fan there too

No parades for this coward

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1250868807331184640?s=20

Yeah, like the old joke, the Reds & the Blacks. Reds eat the cheap red caviar, Blacks have a dacha by the Black Sea, Reds get sunburned skin working the harvest, etc.

Ahead of the Curve wrote:I'm curious what your model looks like. Nearly every model I've seen is grossly underestimating the number of deaths based on the initial success of China and South Korea in slowing/stopping the spread. The run out and overall infection rates in Italy and Spain seem to point towards much higher numbers of 1-2 deaths per 1000 in infected cities with little reliable rural data. It also looks like it will stretch well into June where the IHME models show drastic drops that don't appear to be happening in any European cities thus far.

It would take a long time to fully explain what I’ve done, but it involves tracking the daily change to monitor for stage of growth, which follows a relatively consistent pattern. It’s possible to get a pretty good idea in advance when daily fatalities will peak, within a few days. As the growth rate slows as the peak approaches, confidence in its estimate improves. When the peak has been reached, doubling the cumulative fatalities at that point gives a good first estimate on ultimate total, varying within about -25% to +50%, to the end of the first big wave, around mid May.

A lot of people will think this is completely wrong headed. I’m happy to share my current forecasts for any US state or country. They will all be wrong, to some degree, but on average the differences will be pretty close. Or not. I am NOT an epidemiologist, I only play one on LRC... :)

jesseriley wrote:

Thanks!

Everyone may already know how I feel, but sometimes the disinformation from Moscow needs to be rectified.

Oh the irony...people claiming they know whats going on in a country 5000+ miles away, across an ocean and a language they dont speak.

But how they know! Theyll tell you the details, and with a smug tone too!

Whats odd is the irrational disdain for a country that has little to nothing to do with Coronavirus. But no anger towards the real threat, the country that started it all: CHINA.

Why are you responding to a thread that was started by a troll?

Worse, why do you seem happy to point out that people are getting sick and dying?

hi Rojo I hope you can talk with your bro and have me on the podcast.

My podcast

https://s143.podbean.com/pb/bb2083bf39dba3ae93c954442f16e37c/5e990086/data1/fs38/7195281/uploads/GREGORY.m4a?pbss=32f7ef20-e2c5-5a19-860f-95465e6f25ee

ok, would appreciate your forecasts for UK please.

Thank you

thank you wrote:ok, would appreciate your forecasts for UK please.

Thank you

OK no problem, with the caveat that you appreciate this is outside my expertise, so you shouldn't put any more faith in my opinions than you would in the idle ramblings of any other anonymous on-line LRC lunatic...

Here are my expectations for a variety of European countries and US states:

UK - 27,000, or ~ 400 per million population

Austria - 90 (100 per million)

Belgium - 9000 (780 per million; I think this will be the hardest hit country in the world)

Croatia - 54 (13 per million)

Czech Republic - 330 (30)

Denmark - 530 (90)

Finland - 150 (30)

Germany - 7000 (80)

Italy - 30000 (500)

Latvia - 5 (0)

Netherlands - 4600 (270)

Norway - 280 (50)

Poland - 600 (20)

Russia - 2500 (20)

Spain - 29000 (620)

Sweden - 2300 (230)

Switzerland - 1900 (270)

Turkey - 5200 (60)

Ukraine - 410 (10)

New York - 38000 (1950 per million; expected to be the hardest hit jurisdiction in the world, at the sub-national level)

New Jersey - 6000 (680)

Colorado - 800 (140)

Nevada - 260 (80)

Alaska - 18 (20)

North Dakota - 21 (30)

Utah - 34 (10)

All of these estimates should be read as ranging between about -25% to +50% (for UK, roughly 20-40,000), with about 80% confidence (meaning that I expect about 80% of the estimates to land in those bounds and 20% to land outside those bounds).

That'll be $0.02!

Wow, at this rate Putin may have to stay out of US elections & deal with the mess he made of Russia. What a shame.

Grim-faced Putin announces potential disaster in Russia & cancels mass-attendance Victory Day celebrations.

Almost 5000!!! cases in Russia the last 24 hours, and those are the dreaded “official” figures.

Russia forced to quarantine thousands of soldiers who were stupidly forced to practice in close formation for the Victory Day parade that had to be cancelled!

Check out the puny brain on Putin!

jesseriley wrote:

Russia forced to quarantine thousands of soldiers who were stupidly forced to practice in close formation for the Victory Day parade that had to be cancelled!

Check out the puny brain on Putin!

And on facts matter, giles corey, and the other whiners on here.

Co-Flounder wrote:

Why are you responding to a thread that was started by a troll?

Worse, why do you seem happy to point out that people are getting sick and dying?

Interesting questions. The prevalence of pro-Russia disinformation trolls is an embarrassment, even compared to Wild West tradition of this message board.

Again, the dreaded “official” figures keep going up in Russia, but independent reports show a massive undercount even so. Stay tuned for foreign intelligence estimates of the true figures.

The (massively undercounted) “official” figures show deaths rising to 101 in the last day. Remember the “1 death in russia” thread? lol

How will dredging up an old thread advance the discourse? I get that criticism of ideas is a healthy thing, but why now?

Hi Interested - sorry i missed your post.

Thanks.

For the UK unfortunately you didnt factor in the power of the media who have gleefully aided our statisticans to jump up the leaderboard in their personal aim of first place.

They are so despicable they had to rework the statistics yesterday to add as many deaths as possible.

So now not only do we just record people who died 'with' coronavirus, we also allow notifications from non medical staff (care home people) and unverified stuff on death certificates - put there specifically for further investigation normally.

I did hear today that we intend to take a random 20 000 people and test them for antigens and antibodies every month in order to estimate population trends.

T

Ah, so it looks like Jesseriley and Bill Gates were upset that Russia had such low numbers of cases and fatalities so they jumped in Gates' private jet and flew over Moscow dumping a few vials of Covid. Seems to have worked.