Sometimes it works out better for the athlete if they end up running slower in high school and go to a lower level d1 school. Here is an example:
A 4:20 kid and a 4:30 kid both want to run in college. The 4:20 kid has tremendous amounts of opportunities that the 4:30 kid does not have access to. The 4:30 kid can usually walk on to or run at a lower D1 or D2/D3 school, but they would have no shot running at the schools the 4:20 guy is.
So now let’s say that 4:30 guys picks a school that isn’t that fast but has athletes he is able to run with and progressively move up and make an impact. Since the 4:30 guys team isn’t that good he is going to be able to run at a lot more meets then the 4:20 freshman that picked a Major D1 school where they are just another fish in the pond.
Now since the 4:30 guy is racing a lot more and gaining fitness that they thought they would never have they are progressively getting their times down. The 4:20 guy isn’t racing as much and when they do they are probably running around the same or if not a little slower then they were in high school because of lack of attention/diminished team role. The coaches at a major school are more focused on their sub 4:10 that have a shot at scoring at conferences.
Many of the 4:20 guys that barely make the major D1 school team will eventually fade away and be injured quit or cut. Now the 4:30 guy that didn’t quite hit his potential is running 4:15s and progressively getting faster and starting to run at bigger meets.
Will the 4:30 guy be an all American or make this great break through? Probably not, but because they chose to run at a lower tier school where they were actually a contributing member of the team and if they keep at it maybe they could do some good stuff on the conference/regional level. At the end of the day with both runners careers are over the 4:30 high school guy that chose to run at the lower tier school ends up with a better lifetime PR then the 4:20 guy that went to a major school only to disappear and quit.
Experience: I was a 4:35 high school miler that never broke 2 and ended up a 4:10, 1:52 guy. Many of the 4:25 and lower guys that destroyed me in high school and went to bigger schools then I did ended up with slower PRs