COVID-19: Am I missing something?

Unfortunately, I believe this is the "new normal" for the next 12-18 months. Otherwise, we will have an unending series of ALL-CLEARS followed by the inevitable QUARANTINE.

To your point, China opened movie theaters and closed them 2 weeks later. Shanghai opened public tourist and closed them.

Germany just released open lockdown plans and it involves 80% tracking.

To answer your question, USA needs tracking on a bracelet or Bar code on phone. If you have serological immunity, you need to be green lighted back into society. Scan & move along.

If you had a preventive vaccine, move along.

If I test positive, they need be able to track who I’ve been in contact for 2 weeks. What restaurants, what schools, etc

Yes. Affront to your personal liberty.

As this president is incapable of leading, I’m not sure tracking is possible. Thus, sit on your butt and wait for bio pharmaceutical miracle.. eta 1-2 years.

Although this is a logical conclusion of what we are seeing at the moment, I don't think it will happen. The absolute best-case scenario for a vaccine is 18 months, but a more common timeline is 10 years. I doubt it would be that long, as so many are working on it, but it could well drag on past 18 months.

We could not be in lockdown for 5-6 years. I suspect we may have to simply let this out into the wild in a few months, when we have had time to expand medical facilities, whilst we look for a vaccine. That will, unfortunately, result in many deaths.

coronacorona wrote:

I haven’t heard anybody talk about how this ends, can somebody shed some light for me?

you haven't heard anyone talk about this? do you not read the paper or watch the news?

1ub2run wrote:

As this president is incapable of leading, I’m not sure tracking is possible. Thus, sit on your butt and wait for bio pharmaceutical miracle.. eta 1-2 years.

How is the President incapable of leading? Is that code for you are incapable of following direction? What is he suppose to do that is not being done? The US has never been prepared for an epidemic in the past so why is this different?

EXACTLY!!!!

UneducatedRedneck wrote:

1ub2run wrote:

As this president is incapable of leading, I’m not sure tracking is possible. Thus, sit on your butt and wait for bio pharmaceutical miracle.. eta 1-2 years.

How is the President incapable of leading? Is that code for you are incapable of following direction? What is he suppose to do that is not being done? The US has never been prepared for an epidemic in the past so why is this different?

This is different because the President is Trump and we have to use Covid as out best opportunity to get rid of him. Even at the cost of permanently damaging the country.

It may cost a lot of lives, but it will be a small price to pay for consigning the orange baboon to the dustbin of history.

The plan has already been formulated.

We just aren't being told the details.

I think over this summer we experience supply chain issues that become worse than the virus for public health. With the vaccine 12-18 months away our country realizes we can't do this indefinitely until a vaccine is out.

We accept the virus is apart of our lives and the very weak are isolated as much as possible. A lot of people will die but it is better for the country in the long run.

UneducatedRedneck wrote:

How is the President incapable of leading?

have you seen any of the corona task force briefings? it's self-explanatory.

UneducatedRedneck wrote:

Is that code for you are incapable of following direction?

which direction is that? to wear facemasks (like he said) or not to wear them (like he's doing)?

UneducatedRedneck wrote:

What is he suppose to do that is not being done?

a) providing a path with a clear direction towards normalcy.

b) establishing a task force with real, educated leadership (not his family).

c) being consistent and clear in his communication.

should i continue?

UneducatedRedneck wrote:

The US has never been prepared for an epidemic in the past so why is this different?

this is a pandemic, not an epidemic...but, putting that aside, maybe he could have, perhaps, just possibly NOT FIRED the pandemic response team in 2017 (the one that obama established after the h1n1 epidemic to deal specifically with potential future outbreaks).

1ub2run wrote:

To your point, China opened movie theaters and closed them 2 weeks later. Shanghai opened public tourist and closed them.

Germany just released open lockdown plans and it involves 80% tracking.

To answer your question, USA needs tracking on a bracelet or Bar code on phone. If you have serological immunity, you need to be green lighted back into society. Scan & move along.

If you had a preventive vaccine, move along.

If I test positive, they need be able to track who I’ve been in contact for 2 weeks. What restaurants, what schools, etc

Yes. Affront to your personal liberty.

As this president is incapable of leading, I’m not sure tracking is possible. Thus, sit on your butt and wait for bio pharmaceutical miracle.. eta 1-2 years.

CoachB41 wrote:

EXACTLY!!!!

Ur a bigger a hole than the other scmuck. One moran co signing BS from the other.

If you going to critique my response, please learn how to spell.

coronacorona wrote:

Am I missing something? Is there a plan or a logical to reintroduce everybody into society? What happens when the quarantine is over, won’t the case spike then? Will we have to go back into quarantine if the number of cases begins to rise again? I haven’t heard anybody talk about how this ends, can somebody shed some light for me?

We need to continue ramping up testing. The shutdown needs to continue until active cases in the USA are way down somewhere below 30K (Probably going to take at least 40 days or pretty strict measures). Then people need to keep a log of everywhere and everyone (they know) that they've been in contact with for the last 2 week period. If you test positive, self-quarantine and all of your known contacts for the last 2 weeks should be tested. We need to have a subset of randomized population testing along with antibody testing so we can better understand/estimate how many people have had it and potentially catch some people with it before it spreads too fast. We need a card or something to quickly let people know you are recovered and don't have the risk of infecting others. These would need to continue until a vaccine is developed or another method of protecting healthcare systems from overrunning is discovered.

Or: We need a big pharmaceutical breakthrough - a mass produced drug that keeps sick people out of the ICU so that opening everything up won't completely overrun all of the hospitals. We should continue to encourage social distancing and personal hand washing until a vaccine is available or enough people have had it that the risk of a big spike has significantly decreased.

IMO Best case scenario is we get an effective vaccine pushed out in 12-18 months which will be way more economically efficient at stopping infection spikes than lockdowns.

coronacorona wrote:

Am I missing something? Is there a plan or a logical to reintroduce everybody into society? What happens when the quarantine is over, won’t the case spike then? Will we have to go back into quarantine if the number of cases begins to rise again? I haven’t heard anybody talk about how this ends, can somebody shed some light for me?

It's a supply and demand issue. The reason we are doing the quarantine is to reduce the demand (number of infected people who need to be hospitalized). We simply don't have the capacity (supply) right now. There is currently a massive scramble to increase the production of ventilators, PPE, and other equipment/supplies needed to increase capacity.

If the number of cases begin to rise again (very likely we'll have a 2nd wave in the fall) we will have a much higher capacity in terms of equipment.

Guys I think you are all overreacting a little

China's already partly back on track. Things are also really good in South Korea

I think you're going to start to see the hospitals situation get better in the next couple of weeks

Once the hospitals can adequately keep up with patient demands life should return to normal

This is all happening just so the Healthcare System doesn't get overwhelmed

Seriously the number of respiratory illnesses goes way down once the weather warms up

How many times have you gotten the flu in warm weather

I'm not saying it hasn't been bad and I'm not saying that we're not going to have to deal with this for the next couple of months

But just judging from what happened in China there's no way it's going to be 18 months

Let's remember all the evidence shows that the numbers get exaggerating during a pandemic. Anyway once the hospitals are able to keep up with demand we should be able to lift the quarantine.

I personally know someone who works in government, who has given me a broad idea of the reintroduction, which is dependent on testing. Since we don't have testing capacity to broadly test 330 million Americans, everyone needs to be on lockdown for a while. Once about 5% of the population has been tested, and our testing capacity is up to 1 million per day, then they can begin targeted disease tracking and put quarantines on particular areas that are effective at reducing the spread of the disease. This would allow for certain areas to reopen, particularly rural and smaller suburban areas that can trace the disease easily. I can't imagine cities will be reopened for a while, at least until an effective treatment has been discovered and approved.

China greatly understated their figures. There's no way to know how many cases there are, but it did not halt at 82,000. Some estimates range from 200,000 to 500,000. The Chinese government did it for a few reasons, mostly economic, but don't use this anecdote to understate how serious the disease is. It will almost surely not be eighteen months, however.