The "stay-at-home economy" will be permanent. Invest accordingly.

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Let's move past the idea that this is a "temporary" shut-down with and end date and accept the fact that the "stay-at-home economy" is the future. Invest accordingly.

Amazon, Slack, Zoom. Short commercial real estate holders and REITs, if possible.

the list should include NFLX

I added some Disney when is was $82 just because of Disney+. I figured Disneyland would be the one place people still go after this. I guess time will tell.

Things that could no more from now on...

Cyber Schooling (preschool - college)

No more office buildings

No more gyms

No more restaurants

No more entertainment venues

No more brick and mortar stores

I would say invest in anything related to...

Cyber education

Cyber office work

Home fitness

Home cooking

Home entertainment

Online shopping

Amazon

Facebook (people often forget that Facebook is also Instagram and Whatsapp, massively popular, no threat for now)

Netflix

Virtual reality.

You realize the Amazon workers aren't staying at home?

Amazon could not survive if it was truly an all in situation.

X-Runner wrote:

You realize the Amazon workers aren't staying at home?

Amazon could not survive if it was truly an all in situation.

Certain facilities need to keep functioning in order to allow everyone else to stay at home, such as Amazon fulfillment centers.

Remote learning has its benefits and I think this period will push a lot of teachers further into the use of technology - things like the flipped classroom model will soar.

However, there are absolutely essential aspects of education that are lost in remote learning, especially in younger years. Kids need to play, they need face to face social cues and group interactions that simply aren’t the same through a screen. There are social elements of learning that are far more important than people tend to realize.

I’d say that this period will have an influence on education, but if anything it will drive home the value of place based education for primary and secondary schools.

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Let's move past the idea that this is a "temporary" shut-down with and end date and accept the fact that the "stay-at-home economy" is the future. Invest accordingly.

Let's here the reasoning for its permanence.

Parsec wrote:

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Let's move past the idea that this is a "temporary" shut-down with and end date and accept the fact that the "stay-at-home economy" is the future. Invest accordingly.

Let's here the reasoning for its permanence.

Been working from home for about 6-7 years now. There isn't a huge reason most people have to go into the office. I am fully functional and probably more productive when I wfh. I think the world would be a lot better place if everyone who could wfh did so at least twice a week. Commuting is an enormous waste of resources and source of pollution. A long commute will suck the life out of you after awhile. The office is a disgusting cesspool of germs.

That said, working from home isn't for everyone, you need to be a self starter and hold yourself accountable. You need to have the right manager, one who trusts you to work independently. Finally, you need to be in the right business. Some people (not me) also like going into an office. You might see more companies get more liberal with WFH policies, but you won't see the office go away any time soon.

Parsec wrote:

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Let's move past the idea that this is a "temporary" shut-down with and end date and accept the fact that the "stay-at-home economy" is the future. Invest accordingly.

Let's here the reasoning for its permanence.

1. We're fooling ourselves into thinking the pandemic will be "over" in a matter of months. What exactly will be over? Whether we go back to work in July, October, or December - the Coronavirus will just spread like wildfire again. We will have to work around it.

2. As the commenter above me suggested, people were slowly trending towards working from home and online education. The virus merely accelerated this trend. Location-based education and workplaces are a relics of the past, which the virus has killed.

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Parsec wrote:

Let's here the reasoning for its permanence.

1. We're fooling ourselves into thinking the pandemic will be "over" in a matter of months. What exactly will be over? Whether we go back to work in July, October, or December - the Coronavirus will just spread like wildfire again. We will have to work around it.

2. As the commenter above me suggested, people were slowly trending towards working from home and online education. The virus merely accelerated this trend. Location-based education and workplaces are a relics of the past, which the virus has killed.

My response:

1. True. The reason being that we uninvited Holy God out of our lives.

2. For the past few years my classes have been taught online.

Warren Buffet's advisor wrote:

Parsec wrote:

Let's here the reasoning for its permanence.

1. We're fooling ourselves into thinking the pandemic will be "over" in a matter of months. What exactly will be over? Whether we go back to work in July, October, or December - the Coronavirus will just spread like wildfire again. We will have to work around it.

2. As the commenter above me suggested, people were slowly trending towards working from home and online education. The virus merely accelerated this trend. Location-based education and workplaces are a relics of the past, which the virus has killed.

Both true. This accelerated the technology changes.

timefly wrote:

Remote learning has its benefits and I think this period will push a lot of teachers further into the use of technology - things like the flipped classroom model will soar.

However, there are absolutely essential aspects of education that are lost in remote learning, especially in younger years. Kids need to play, they need face to face social cues and group interactions that simply aren’t the same through a screen. There are social elements of learning that are far more important than people tend to realize.

I’d say that this period will have an influence on education, but if anything it will drive home the value of place based education for primary and secondary schools.

Absolutely agree with this, spot on.

My daughter is doing just fine with home learning. However the joy she got from just seeing her French teacher and class friends on zoom this week shows how much she misses and needs the social interaction, play etc.

I have had a couple of non-evidentiary hearings and mediations conducted via Zoom. The early consensus is that much more of what we do in the legal profession needs to be done this way. Going to a docket call and having to sit and wait for 45-60 min for your turn in front of a judge, plus the time put in fighting traffic, finding parking, etc. is incredibly inefficient. With the Zoom hearing, you sit at your desk and get an email from the clerk when it is time to start. Probably reduces the attorney's fees by 2/3rds. And for mediation, I would have had to drive 3 hours or fly to get to the mediation (rural area, so all the attorney's were 1-3 hours away). We all did it on Zoom and probably saved our clients several thousand on attorney's fees. Plus, we all got to sleep in our own bed and eat dinner with our family. Even if a cure for the virus comes out tomorrow, I really hope everyone realizes how much more efficient the technology is and makes big changes going forward.

Homeschooled kids almost universally miss important social skills. I like the natural forces. Some things that can go remote will, and toxic bullies will end up left out. Social things people like and generate good work will stay.

I think airlines are going to be in deep, deep trouble even after this dies down. So much of their revenue is from business travelers buying last minute airfare with their expense accounts to attend some meeting on the other side of the continent (or world). Now we see that most of those meetings are BS that can be handled via videoconference. If a flight needs $30k in ticket sales to be profitable and they can sell a few of those tickets at $500-$600 to last minute travelers, all of the leisure travelers can pay less. But if the business market dries up, the prices for leisure travelers go up, and the demand goes down as people switch to driving to a nearby location for vacation.

I also think the impacts on education will be interesting (I'm a high school teacher). There have been online/virtual/homeschool type things for a while, but I think it will take off now. At the K-8 level a large part of schooling is just warehousing kids and keeping them safe. I don't mean any disrespect to elementary and middle school teachers--I don't have the patience to do what y'all do--but obviously younger kids can't take care of themselves and need more adult supervision. So I think primary education will largely stay as is. On the other hand, a high school kid at home by himself presumably isn't going to burn his house down. If you could run an online charter school you could probably do it for significantly less than the money spent per student at traditional public schools. You're getting rid of the overhead on facilities. You could give a kid a laptop and high-speed internet at his house for probably $1000 a year. You could attract teachers who don't want to put up with the classroom management issues they'd have to deal with in many inner-city public schools. You could probably pay teachers a lot less and hire them from anywhere in the country. You could use free websites such as Khan Academy for a lot of the instructional materials.

I certainly think there's a lot of value in a traditional school setting with access to extracurriculars, being around other students, etc. I still think most HS students ten years from now will still be in a traditional, on-campus setting. But I think just like you've seen charter schools pop up in districts with poor public schools, you'll see online charters fill a niche. A lot of schools (especially public schools in poor areas where kids are less likely to have computer/internet access at home) have basically had to shut down. When parents see that there are other ways of doing education, I think some will want to switch.

I also think online education will expand even more at the college level. There will be much less of a stigma toward online classes/degrees after this experience. I think some schools will aggressively expand and try to promote their online programs. I think a lot of students will say "Why take on $100k in debt when I can stay at home and take online classes?" Again, a lot of people will still want the typical college experience (parties/drinking/football), so I don't think that's going away, but I think you'll see a shift to more online classes whether students are on-campus or not.

We will have a preventive vaccine in 10 months. After world is medicated, we will open up.

It’s a mRNA virus. Very simple. Not hard to make.

10 vaccines in pipeline in USA. 36 across world.

ONE of them is bound to work.. no?