Conservative AEI: Cost-Benefit Analysis Suggests Optimal Lockdown is 30-34 Weeks

OP didn't include link:

https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/determining-the-optimal-duration-of-the-covid-19-suppression-policy-a-cost-benefit-analysis/

30-34 weeks?

needless peanut gallery wrote:

OP didn't include link:

"OP"? You are the OP.

same username wrote:

needless peanut gallery wrote:

OP didn't include link:

"OP"? You are the OP.

“OP” = Orginal Poster OR Original post. His statement was valid

The article makes some very very strong assumptions of which I don't think most people would agree. Here's one example that seems like bs.

"We assume that each adults in the household with children under 18 would will lose 35% of their productivity". So only adults with children lose productivity by working from home and only 35% in all areas of business? This is some elementary bs.

To simply throw this out there and suggest that over half a year makes sense is just asinine for OP to suggest. The article also ignores a lot of things that would definitely be costs for future. For example when people stop doing things they slowly their ability to do those things and their motivation to do them. When you sit around doing nothing for 6 months do you believe you can just go back and do it back to 100% immediately.

This article is nothing more than an academic trying to take advantage of the current situation to pad their CV.

needless peanut gallery wrote:

... Not 2.

I read a little. It makes sense based on statements Anthony Fauci, M.D. stated today. Assuming morbidity & mortality decrease significantly over the summer, Dr. Fauci expects another wave of corona-19 virus in the fall.

yeah. fauci is most likely right. it's a little sad that the conspiracy theorists have forced everybody else's hand--if we could have gotten quick action and 100% compliance back on march 1, we could be very nearly in the clear now. but not a whole lot of acknowledgement from the hoaxers.

...but i dont know whether intermittent distancing is actually preferable to one long run?

needless peanut gallery wrote:

we could be very nearly in the clear now.

Clear how? Well over 99.9% of the population not immune is supposed to prevent another wave how? Explain.

needless peanut gallery wrote:

yeah. fauci is most likely right. it's a little sad that the conspiracy theorists have forced everybody else's hand--if we could have gotten quick action and 100% compliance back on march 1, we could be very nearly in the clear now. but not a whole lot of acknowledgement from the hoaxers.

...but i dont know whether intermittent distancing is actually preferable to one long run?

The reason why flu dies off in most summers is because of natural physical separation. Typically, U.S. citizens are not inside long hours in summer, at least not inside as many long hours as winter. As I stated in another thread this evening, I would like to see healthy & young out of work U.S. citizens working outside this spring and summer on infrastructure projects, specifically high speed rail. 2009 & 2010, we paid some healthy and fit U.S. citizens extended unemployment. We paid about 1.5 trillion, 2009 & 2010. What do we have to show for it? We will spend several trillion. I would love to see F.D.R.-type work projects.

34 weeks? This ridiculous. All for a bad cold/flu? It’s clearly not one thing that’s “causing “ this alleged pandemic. I suggest people (at least those that can pull their faces away from the shrieking fearporn MSM) get educated as to what’s really going on. A good place to start would be by reading the blog at nomorefakenews.com. Alternatively if you’re interested in citizen video journalism you can follow this woman: tinyurl.com/udmmk4f

Floodthezone wrote:

34 weeks? This ridiculous. All for a bad cold/flu? It’s clearly not one thing that’s “causing “ this alleged pandemic. I suggest people (at least those that can pull their faces away from the shrieking fearporn MSM) get educated as to what’s really going on. A good place to start would be by reading the blog at nomorefakenews.com. Alternatively if you’re interested in citizen video journalism you can follow this woman:

tinyurl.com/udmmk4f

Wow. That stuff makes InfoWars look like the Christian Science Monitor. Real batsh#t crazy stuff.

I am about to be among the oldest people in the nation.

And I'm 50.

Bad Wigins wrote:

needless peanut gallery wrote:

we could be very nearly in the clear now.

Clear how? Well over 99.9% of the population not immune is supposed to prevent another wave how? Explain.

You are one of the nutjobs constantly pushing the idea that there are orders of magnitude more exposure than what has been reported. Just stop trolling.

Like the amazing Cali high speed rail project?

oldish guy wrote:

"We assume that each adults in the household with children under 18 would will lose 35% of their productivity". So only adults with children lose productivity by working from home and only 35% in all areas of business? This is some elementary bs.

They're assuming 35% is the average loss of productivity. Nothing wrong with making assumptions, you have to do that if you want to model anything

student of economics wrote:

The reason why flu dies off in most summers is because of natural physical separation. Typically, U.S. citizens are not inside long hours in summer, at least not inside as many long hours as winter.

That's not really true. Maybe in warm weather people are indoors 22 hours per day instead of 23. Summer weather will only slow down the increase a little bit due to the warmer humid weather, but it's not enough to reverse the trend, otherwise it wouldn't be spreading at virtually the same rate in Australia right now.

Vegas Odds wrote:

Like the amazing Cali high speed rail project?

This is your second or third time that you feel the need to remind me that there is not a 200K per hour high speed train functioning between San Diego and San Francisco. You obviously want me to debate you.

Let's go back to January, 2009. Obama made the banks happy. Including Senator Sanders, Democrats had 60 men & women, U.S. Senate, 2009. Democrats had the House of Representatives. Democrats spent most of 2009 to January, 2011 working on Affordable Care Act. Obama felt Affordable Care Act was more important than working on high speed rail. Obama's plan was for a huge jobs plan, 2011 to 2013. Democrats no longer were majority in U.S. Senate, Jan., 2011. Republicans were majority. Once Republicans were in control of Congress, 2011, federal funding for rail was no longer going to occur. California attempted to build high speed rail largely without federal aid, at least as not as much federal aid as Obama would have given states, if possible.

I do not know what you're telling me? California has not gotten high speed rail completed without significant federal government aid. I agree.

American Enterprise Institute? Oh please.

What's that cowboy insult? All hat, no cattle? AEI is all spin, no content.

They just parrot the right wing line du jour.

I've never seen anything from them that wasn't laughable. Bunch of intellectual wannabes.

How long has she been off her meds?