COVID-19: Demographics and Data?

I think it requires further research. I know that a study to get the kind of detail you describe is being commissioned now from UW for something like a million dollars.

The bigger point is that nobody wants each individual to decide his or her own risk and to flout isolation orders based on that. We have to act together to avoid calamity.

You raise a good point and unfortunately that type of detailed data won’t materialize until much later. The nearest point of reference is the H1N1 pandemic. There’s plenty of data on the CDC website about it. If that pandemic occurred today, we would all be sheltering in place at home. It was deadlier for those under 65 than those over., especially dangerous to children. Can you imagine that type of mortality threat with COVID?

Yeah, the hospitals have to provide better data.

Good thing there have nothing else to do.

Ohhh wait, they are slammed because of Covid-19.

In the US, we are essentially a country or pre-existing conditions.

40% adults are obese

Another 30% are overweight

30% of Americans have diabetes or prediabetes

46% of adults have high blood pressure

The lifetime probability of a person being diagnosed with cancer is 38%

20% of Americans have asthma of some form of lung condition

Then, there’s this list of diseases that compromise the immune system.

https://www.aarda.org/diseaselist/

I’d say, less than 1/3 people have zero of these issues.

PaulG wrote:

You raise a good point and unfortunately that type of detailed data won’t materialize until much later. The nearest point of reference is the H1N1 pandemic. There’s plenty of data on the CDC website about it. If that pandemic occurred today, we would all be sheltering in place at home. It was deadlier for those under 65 than those over., especially dangerous to children. Can you imagine that type of mortality threat with COVID?

If H1N1 occurred today, we would not be sheltering at home. It shared none of the characteristics of Covid 19. We essentially let it run it’s course and it killed 12,800 people over an 18 month time frame. H1N1 was as mild as it could possibly be, and the final outcome shows that.

We’ve shut down the entire country, and Covid 19 killed 525 people yesterday.

You are correct. H1N1 was a threat to children while Covid 19 targets the old and unhealthy and most deaths are old rich white men. That group controls the media and therefore controls most of you.

You don't know that COVID killed 525 people yesterday. The methodology for attributing cause of death is flawed in many places. Can you cite the details of those 525 who died. Without doing so citing "they died of COVID" may not be accurate.

Then why was H1N1 declared a pandemic?

We won't know until we see the stats for all causes. If total deaths only increase by 50,000, but they attribute 1 million to Covid 19 while decreasing the normal numbers for heart disease, diabetes, or cancer and others by 950,000, did Covid really cause 1 million deaths?

PaulG wrote:

Then why was H1N1 declared a pandemic?

It was:

The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The coronavirus identified in China in 2019 caused nothing less than a strong cold or flu, with no difference so far with cold or flu as we know , ”

[…]

Respiratory viral conditions are numerous and are caused by several viral families and species, among which the respiratory syncytial virus (especially in infants), influenza (influenza), human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and various coronaviruses, already described years ago. It is striking that earlier this year global health alerts have been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19, knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia and 50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued.

[…]

Our planet is the victim of a new sociological phenomenon, scientific-media harassment , triggered by experts only on the basis of laboratory molecular diagnostic analysis results. Communiqués issued from China and Geneva were replicated, without being confronted from a critical point of view and, above all, without stressing that coronaviruses have always infected humans and always caused diarrhoea and what people call a banal cold or common cold. Absurd forecasts were extrapolated, as in 2009 with the H1N1 influenza virus.

[…]

There is no evidence to show that the 2019 coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.

– Interview on Clarin.com, 9th March 2020

- Dr Pablo Goldschmidt is an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases, and Professor of Molecular Pharmacology at the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris. He is a graduate of the Faculty of Pharmacy and Biochemistry of the University of Buenos Aires and Faculty of Medicine of the Hospital Center of Pitié-Salpetrière, Paris.

https://www.clarin.com/buena-vida/coronavirus-panico-injustificado-dice-virologo-argentino-francia_0_yVcmJ4RM.html

Yes, but the best way to achieve compliance in a country based on individual freedom is to convince individuals that the prescribed plan is the best course of action. I'm an educated person and I am far from convinced that the "everyone shelter in place" plan is appropriate. Based on the amount of discussion on these message boards, I don't think I'm alone in feeling that way.

In my case, a little bit of information would go a long way. I'm sure hospitals are entering this information into a database. Why don't they make the database available to the research community so that this type of information can be shared with the general population? It will either support the case that everyone needs to shelter in place to protect themselves (because everyone is at risk), or perhaps demonstrate that only the most vulnerable need to protect themselves. I doubt any type of data would suggest that everyone needs to self isolate to protect only a few vulnerable individuals.

This type of analysis could be done in a matter of hours if the data would only be shared. Do HIPAA laws prevent this?

Hey, everyone...check this out! A game changer on protecting yourself from Covid-19:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/doctor-david-price-coronavirus.amp

Jesse Watters featured Dr. David Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center on "Watters' World" Saturday, where the New York City doctor gave advice on how people can prevent spreading the coronavirus.

"You may hear a little inflection in my voice like I'm emotional. It's not because I'm scared. It's actually the opposite. For the first time in a while, I'm actually not scared," Price said via video. "I work at probably the premier hospital in New York City. Our hospital is almost exclusively a COVID-19 hospital, but we're learning and we know a lot. And what I want you guys to know is that every single day we're getting better, we know more. And I am confident that the stuff I can tell you today should make you guys feel like when this comes to your community that you don't have to be scared and that you can protect your family."

Price went on say the virus is primarily transmitted by touching someone who has the virus and then touching your face.

"The ways that you get this is the transmission of the virus almost exclusively from your hands to your face, from your hands to your face and inside your eyes, into your nose or into your mouth," Price explained. "So there's a lot of talk about contact or getting it through contacts, hands to face."

The doctor also addressed the idea that the virus is transmitted by "long sustained contact" or through the air.

"There's also a small thought that it can be aerosolized, that it can kind of exist a little bit in the air," Price said. "The thought at this point is that you actually have to have very long sustained contact with someone. And I'm talking about over 15 to 30 minutes in an unprotected environment, meaning you're in a very closed room without any type of mask for you to get it that way."

"But very simply stated, the overwhelming majority of people are getting this by physically touching someone who has this disease or will develop it in the next one to two days and then touching their face," he pointed out.

"The thing that makes me smile a little bit is I actually know now that I won't get this disease because I know how to protect myself," Price said in the video.

The worst of times wrote:

"But very simply stated, the overwhelming majority of people are getting this by physically touching someone who has this disease or will develop it in the next one to two days and then touching their face," he pointed out.

"The thing that makes me smile a little bit is I actually know now that I won't get this disease because I know how to protect myself," Price said in the video.

Watch this guy get it. This is true airborne, hanging in the air for at least 3 hours, able to enter through your eyes. Sounds like he believes the latest CDC stance, where they dialed it back to droplets, because they needed to justify allowing healthcare workers to continue on without proper PPE.

Allen53 wrote:

gully much? wrote:

If H1N1 occurred today, we would not be sheltering at home. It shared none of the characteristics of Covid 19. We essentially let it run it’s course and it killed 12,800 people over an 18 month time frame. H1N1 was as mild as it could possibly be, and the final outcome shows that.

We’ve shut down the entire country, and Covid 19 killed 525 people yesterday.

You don't know that COVID killed 525 people yesterday. The methodology for attributing cause of death is flawed in many places. Can you cite the details of those 525 who died. Without doing so citing "they died of COVID" may not be accurate.

They were classified as Covid 19 deaths, so they are Covid 19 deaths. The burden of proof would be on you to refute all 525 to explain why they weren’t what medical professionals said they were.

If this is the game you want to play, how many flu deaths were to people who had pre-existing conditions? Maybe the H1N1 death numbers are vastly overstated also since flu deaths also skew to people with pre-existing conditions.

I’d be more than happy to hear you document how you plan on finding case loads and the medical history of those who died of Covid 19, and coming up with plausible explanations as to why they didn’t actually die from Covid 19.

Trail Mule wrote:

Yes, but the best way to achieve compliance in a country based on individual freedom is to convince individuals that the prescribed plan is the best course of action. I'm an educated person and I am far from convinced that the "everyone shelter in place" plan is appropriate. Based on the amount of discussion on these message boards, I don't think I'm alone in feeling that way.

Yes, there are a lot of idiots and trolls here. You can choose to take your direction from them if you wish.

Flu deaths are calculated using broad estimates, not by testing every dead person. The way to refute some Covid 19 deaths will be by reviewing the total deaths for the year and comparing to data from previous year ddeaths. If heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, and a bunch of other causes decrease this year while we attribute a bunch to Covid 19, it would be reasonable to adjust to the prior year numbers.