Italy, 20 days, after lockdown, 889 new deaths today

You must not have seen the estimates of your own people that in 10 days ventilator capacity will be exceeded, deliveries of new machines being later than that.

Baba Yaga B wrote:

The Artilleryman had it right drinking Champagne wrote:

Doesn't this show the measures ARE working?

i.e. they are no longer going up. The deaths have plateaued. Isn't that exactly what we'd hoped to see? The exponential growth has gone.

I mean, the exponential growth was going to stop anyway. How do you know the lockdown is working if thousands of new cases reach the hospital every day?

An epidemie does not goes on indefinitely. The only way to estimate if the lockdown was successful is to see what happens when it is lifted.

if the cases go up massively once it is lifted, then the lockdown was preventing the spread. If the virus does not spread massively when it is lifted, that would mean the population has developped herd immunity and the lockdown was useless.

That's not the way it works, read this and be happy there is a lockdown :

The number of both new cases and deaths seem to be stabilizing in Spain, with both curves flattening significantly in the past 5 days. We'll see how it goes.

When comparing infection and death cases from different countries, be aware no two countries follow the same guidelines to count their dead by COVID-19 or decide who gets tested. France, for instance, only counts as COVID-19 victims those dead in hospitals. Other countries only test post-mortem for COVID-19 after a certain date, leaving early casualties out of the official count. And so on.

Good luck, everyone. Stay safe.

The national lock down order was the evening of the 9th, so March 10 was the first day of lock down though localized lock downs in parts of northern Italy in into affect a little earlier. The average death happens something like 19 days after symptom onset, so something like 24 days after first infection. It's likely almost everyone dying today contracted the virus before the lock down order happened.

Ronies wrote:

The national lock down order was the evening of the 9th, so March 10 was the first day of lock down though localized lock downs in parts of northern Italy in into affect a little earlier. The average death happens something like 19 days after symptom onset, so something like 24 days after first infection. It's likely almost everyone dying today contracted the virus before the lock down order happened.

This. The death rate will lag behind the new infection rate. We’ll see soon enough in our own science experiment of a country what measures work and don’t work. Florida and Louisiana have done the least locking down. Keep an eye on their numbers and growth rates compared to states who sheltered in place early.

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

Ronies wrote:

The national lock down order was the evening of the 9th, so March 10 was the first day of lock down though localized lock downs in parts of northern Italy in into affect a little earlier. The average death happens something like 19 days after symptom onset, so something like 24 days after first infection. It's likely almost everyone dying today contracted the virus before the lock down order happened.

This. The death rate will lag behind the new infection rate. We’ll see soon enough in our own science experiment of a country what measures work and don’t work. Florida and Louisiana have done the least locking down. Keep an eye on their numbers and growth rates compared to states who sheltered in place early.

Florida seems to be climbing, although they did take some measures and close the beaches. CA seems to be levelling out, though there are some incredibly densely populated places there. I expect LA will be bad for a long time. Michigan passed CA for number of cases. I expect Detroit and Chicago to be very bad like NYC soon. The key is for people in densely populated urban places to make every effort to avoid other people. It comes down to getting them to do this. Someone in say the eastern desert counties of CA will prob never come into contact with a covid-19 carrier if they just don't travel. Someone in Detroit probably has several chances a day of contacting a carrier if they don't take precautions.

The alarmists will use the "Never a True Scotsman" argumentative fallacy and claim that a real lockdown was never implemented in Italy

For the 100th time...Germany are testing people in the street! Hence the low mortality rate. They are following the correct guidance TEST TEST TEST. Meanwhile in the UK, we tested 900 medical staff. Only 999,100 more to go...

Boris has handled this appallingly.

Dithering to but ventilaors.

Dithering to lockdown.

Dithering to test.

Dithering to get PPE to front line.

Awful crisis management.

jamin wrote:

The alarmists will use the "Never a True Scotsman" argumentative fallacy and claim that a real lockdown was never implemented in Italy

Fack off, jamin, go get ITBS or runner's knee, since being a mediocre runner is all you care about.

deathinparadise wrote:

Yeah I was looking at the ICU numbers levelling off as a "good sign" but it's probably maxed out...Amazing that confinement hasn't been working better after nearly 20 days.

Who says it's not working? The linear growth in cases we're seeing is a lot better than the exponential growth early on.

Baba Yaga wrote:

It's now 20 days since the Italy lockdown is in effect and juding the last weeks numbers

March 20: 619 deaths

March 21: 793 deaths

March 22: 651 deaths

March 23: 601 deaths

March 24: 743 deaths

March 25: 683 deaths

March 26: 712 deaths

March 27: 919 deaths

And March 28 : 889 new deaths

They went into lock down March 08, with 133 deaths

The numbers of new cases is steady, staying at around 6 000 new cases per day, which is probably their maximum test capacity. The number of people in ICU is progressing, but slowly, meaning that they are probably increasing slowly their hospital capacities.

Spain is getting there and with even higher number despite an even more agressive and their shameful targeting of joggers.

Italy expected the death toll to slow down much at least a week sooner. It is providing an exemple of a lockdown not really working.

those stats don't make sense. at all

epidemics go up exponentially and down exponentially.

what you have is the italian social medicine pulling the plug at regular rates.

also, you know that northern italy is a chinese old folks home.???

people that are from italy with an IQ should chime in

not letsrun basement dwellers with C- in math 101

Italy better get their situation under control and lifts those bans soon or things are going to get real ugly.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-30/italy-risks-losing-grip-in-south-with-fears-of-looting-and-riots

What a mess in Southern Italy:

https://youtu.be/ShO_oMmbTXk

Reality and Truth wrote:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/open-letter-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/5708004

Lol: look at question 2 and ask yourself what would be your response considering Italy, Spain and France.

Where? I live in Berlin and don't know anyone who has been tested.

And nearly 10,000 Americans died due to causes unrelated to Covid-19 yesterday.

Giles Corey wrote:

And nearly 10,000 Americans died due to causes unrelated to Covid-19 yesterday.

Of course, the other cause of deaths will remain prevalent. The COVID19 is an epidmy, it will peak high and then decrease. Cancers , accidents and other chronical illness are there to stay.