Italy, 20 days, after lockdown, 889 new deaths today

Yeah I was looking at the ICU numbers levelling off as a "good sign" but it's probably maxed out...Amazing that confinement hasn't been working better after nearly 20 days.

deathinparadise wrote:

Yeah I was looking at the ICU numbers levelling off as a "good sign" but it's probably maxed out...Amazing that confinement hasn't been working better after nearly 20 days.

France has already passed Italy and Spain in number of people in ICU, does it mean it has more serious cases than them or more ICU beds. I remember seeing an number of ICU beds per country somewhere, but every country is probably trying to increase them as much as they can.

I wonder why the europeans are not doing like Trump and giving order to big factories to produce them.

I am not enjoying anything currently, because I am being asked to stay in some form of lockdown, and seeing the Italy and Spain numbers, it look like it will be long because it is not working.

It's only logical to be worried to see that the measures who strip all of our freedom are being extended and prorogated without showing the expected results.

You can’t say that the measure aren’t showing expected results unless you think the numbers would’ve been the same without the measures.

Let’s say Italy does not go on lockdown, the numbers would probably be at least twice as high, right?

That means measures have worked.

Yeah, but the fact is the numbers are still terrible, day after day...let's hope for some respite today.

Yes, thank you, Vladimir.

Germany’s having relative success with the same measures our monsters are complaining about.

It is a big mistake to say that Italy has been under lockdown for 20 days. The big problem in Italy was that compliance with the lockdown order was terrible. Also, it will take about six weeks of lockdown to really get the numbers to turn around. It can be 14 days between exposure and symptoms. It can then be another week before symptoms become acute requiring hospitalization. Then it can be days on a ventilator before death. So people dying now may have been exposed at the beginning of the lockdown. And the people they contaminated may not even have symptoms yet.

Doesn't this show the measures ARE working?

i.e. they are no longer going up. The deaths have plateaued. Isn't that exactly what we'd hoped to see? The exponential growth has gone.

The Artilleryman had it right drinking Champagne wrote:

Doesn't this show the measures ARE working?

i.e. they are no longer going up. The deaths have plateaued. Isn't that exactly what we'd hoped to see? The exponential growth has gone.

Correct. As the Italians realize the illness is serious, they will begin to comply with the "lockdown" and numbers will drop. The same will happen in the US, but I suspect there, thousands will be dying a day before recalcitrants begin to understand that its not just the flu.

The Artilleryman had it right drinking Champagne wrote:

Doesn't this show the measures ARE working?

i.e. they are no longer going up. The deaths have plateaued. Isn't that exactly what we'd hoped to see? The exponential growth has gone.

Yes, Baba Yaga is a troll. Italy's daily new cases have been mostly flat for about 10 days now, assuming testing is still being conducted in the manner. The number of daily deaths may still increase, because there are still lots of sick people from the pre-lockdown and early lockdown days. As those people recover or die, the total number of Italians currently having coronavirus will decrease. If the daily new cases hold or drop, then the current number of Italians with coronavirus will eventually drop as well.

Agree, and same measures in Germany, very well organized, but still plenty of struggles. Including the suicide of the German finance minister, who saw the economic problems.

The Artilleryman had it right drinking Champagne wrote:

Doesn't this show the measures ARE working?

i.e. they are no longer going up. The deaths have plateaued. Isn't that exactly what we'd hoped to see? The exponential growth has gone.

I mean, the exponential growth was going to stop anyway. How do you know the lockdown is working if thousands of new cases reach the hospital every day?

An epidemie does not goes on indefinitely. The only way to estimate if the lockdown was successful is to see what happens when it is lifted.

if the cases go up massively once it is lifted, then the lockdown was preventing the spread. If the virus does not spread massively when it is lifted, that would mean the population has developped herd immunity and the lockdown was useless.

There is some short term evidence Italy has turned the corner - daily deaths have fallen two days in a row, new cases have been in a band for 10 days straight.

There’s also the best evidence of improvement from Germany, which agip will never cite because they’re smarter than him.

Specifically, fewer deaths than other countries at every stage of the pandemic, plus more reliable data.

jesseriley wrote:

There’s also the best evidence of improvement from Germany, which agip will never cite because they’re smarter than him.

At the moment, Germany looks like the best exemple in Europe. And they have not done an italian lockdown yet. Some countries will feel ashamed looking at how bad they did compared to Germany.

Baba Yaga wrote:

Italy expected the death toll to slow down much at least a week sooner. It is providing an exemple of a lockdown not really working.

Not necessarily. It takes a few weeks to really see a difference. 3 weeks may not be enough time to see it working effectively.

On top of that, it MAY be working and this is the result. If it had run unchecked, perhaps those numbers would be significantly higher.

Not true! Actually, Merkel warned Germans more than a week ago that if there were any large groups recreating at the weekend together, not following the guidelines, it would be mandatory.

Instead, we’ve seen solidarity and pragmatism at the street level, unlike Bob-a Jog-a.

jesseriley wrote:

Agree, and same measures in Germany, very well organized, but still plenty of struggles. Including the suicide of the German finance minister, who saw the economic problems.

It was the Hessian finance minister.