Latest expert consensus is for around 130,000-250,000 deaths in US this year from COVID

123,000 cases in the U.S. now, about 19% more than yesterday, and 2221 deaths, 31% more than yesterday. At this rate, we'd be at 33,000 deaths in 10 days and 644,500 in 21 days. Cases would be at 700,000 in 10 days and 4.75 million in 21 days, assuming 19% daily growth. The daily growth in cases has been declining slightly most days, but the increase in the death toll has been considerably higher.

jesseriley wrote:

Bullshi+!

28% positive in NYC

You idiot. New York state has 20 million people. Right now 60,000 there have it. That's 0.28%. Gosh the idiots on here are baffling at times.

It will decelerate if people keep away from other people. I saw footage before of people waiting in a hospital line and they were simply too close to each other.

That works, just assume the 98-99% of people who haven’t been tested are all negative.

Clearly trump is assuming that.

In most cities and states in U.S., the pubs, massage parlors and strip clubs have only been closed for ten days. Mayors and governors were going on tv three weeks ago advocating for social distancing but left said businesses open until ten days ago. Restaurants/pubs had signs posted on the morning of March 18th: limit 125 people. Then they close a dozen hours later. We can alter our behavior to slow this down in order not to overwhelm medical workers. If we as a society or if U.S. President feels it is important to limit this, trump can. China removed all corona-19 positive from society or bolted them in their apartments. On MSNBC, they were saying today that it is illegal for trump to quarantine CT/NJ/NY. BS. There is precedent. F.D.R. separated Japanese-Americans. Abe Lincoln arrested whomever he wanted to arrest without Due Process.

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in 2019 the total number of US deaths was 2,813,503

which averages to 7,708 deaths per day. this is from all causes.

now, if a person dies from COVID-19 they cannot die from flu,

or from some other common cause.

so, the question is, are the projected 250,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2020

all in excess of ~2.8 million? of course not.

the real answer would be to take running averages from past few years

and compare the totals. we might find that 2020 totals did not increase by 10%.

the numbers are most likely going to be the same, within the normal statistical error

538 also said Hilary Clinton had a 71.4% chance to beat Trump in 2016. And that is what they specialize in. They also completely blew their predictions on the Democratic primary with Biden at like a 10% chance to win the nomination prior to South Carolina.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Subway Surfers wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Bullshi+!

28% positive in NYC

You idiot. New York state has 20 million people. Right now 60,000 there have it. That's 0.28%. Gosh the idiots on here are baffling at times.

I'm not sure why you are so angry, but I saw that you were doubting how many cases there really are. Models predicted that 90% of Americans would have contracted this virus this year if we did nothing. Even with an extremely strict societal shutdown, the models predict tens of millions of cases this year. Unfortunately, the piecemeal shutdowns we have make it hard to model the whole USA. But NYC is a relatively confined space with a strict shutdown. What we are seeing in NYC is still exponential growth. The number of confirmed cases is doubling every few days.

Exponential growth can create enormous numbers. Check out how all the other states are growing as well:

These numbers that you think are impossible will be real very, very soon.

objective observer wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

This guy actually thinks this makes sense!

Even is clever!

Poor old sod

You guys realize you are responding to a Russian bot, right?

Either that someone who doesn't understand basic math.

I can't feel my pace wrote:

in 2019 the total number of US deaths was 2,813,503

which averages to 7,708 deaths per day. this is from all causes.

now, if a person dies from COVID-19 they cannot die from flu,

or from some other common cause.

so, the question is, are the projected 250,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2020

all in excess of ~2.8 million? of course not.

the real answer would be to take running averages from past few years

and compare the totals. we might find that 2020 totals did not increase by 10%.

the numbers are most likely going to be the same, within the normal statistical error

There’s literally a post 6 above yours showing total death rate increases in Italy already....

feef wrote:

H1N1 killed 3.5k in the US.

This is why we can't take you guys seriously. You lie, deflect, and cheat at every opportunity.

We'll be passing 3.5k deaths in the next day or so. Anyone who thinks the COVID-19 is like H1N1 is simply not listening to the experts. This is why we're hear. Too many proud know-nothings who can't be told anything unless it bolsters their delusions.

He he - love this kind of garbage!

It absolutely is not why we are "here". Governments around the world (apart from maybe Sweden) are following exactly the same WHO advice and locking down.

Don't disagree with your sentiment but it's kind of hilarious to image policy, anywhere, at any level (!) is being informed by a bunch of morans shooting off on LRC's message boards. No one is going "Well you know what, the chief medical officer says this but I do kind of like the sound of what this Facts Matter guy says on LRC"...

sesamoiditis wrote:

538 also said Hilary Clinton had a 71.4% chance to beat Trump in 2016. And that is what they specialize in. They also completely blew their predictions on the Democratic primary with Biden at like a 10% chance to win the nomination prior to South Carolina.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

You do realize that 30% and 10% events happen?

ZFVFlyer wrote:

Exponential growth can create enormous numbers. Check out how all the other states are growing as well:

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/18/u-s-coronavirus-growth-rates-show-many-states-could-close-behind-new-york/5072663002/

These numbers that you think are impossible will be real very, very soon.

If you look at places like china, italy and spain, that didn't happen. Take Italy, they ramped up from 500 to 5000 in about 2 weeks but since then things have been pretty flat (5-6k cases) for the past 10 days instead of doubling a couple more times.

Now the question in the US is where we are. Are we at the point where things level off or do we have a bunch of doublings till it happens? And the US is large enough that places will be weeks behind NYC.

And of course with any infection rate numbers, testing matters. I bet if we tested 10x as many people we would find a ton more cases.

Ever heard about the Hong Kong flu of 1968?

“The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift. “

UK estimate 20,000 deaths. Of which 10,000 would of died within 12 months irrespective. So, an excess of 10,000 deaths. Which is similar to our excess flu deaths - 8,000.

u no nowt wrote:

UK estimate 20,000 deaths. Of which 10,000 would of died within 12 months irrespective. So, an excess of 10,000 deaths. Which is similar to our excess flu deaths - 8,000.

P.S

That’s with a national lockdown.

Half as many US deaths today as yesterday...