Latest expert consensus is for around 130,000-250,000 deaths in US this year from COVID

tin can man wrote:

The democrats want it to be as bad as possible - high death toll and ruined economy - so they can blame Trump and potentially win the election in 2020. And if they win, they will use coronavirus as a reason why we need EXTREME SOCIALISM.

Just look at the BS that the democrats proposed for the stimulus bill and what things actually ended up in it.

you have the intellect of a five-year-old.

NO drug has proved beneficial in a randomized controlled trial yet. "Likely to be cures" is complete BS. Among the candidates that might provide some benefit, some a IV only or have small tox windows and so could only be used in a hospital setting for severe cases. Nothing will be a prophylactic until a vaccine.

tin can man wrote:

These numbers are so outrageous. They (mad scientists and liberal left media) just want us to be terrified. There are several drugs that have a high likelihood of being cures, based on much evidence from scientists in many different nations.

wejo wrote:

This is the best places I've seen of them asking a group of experts for their opinions and aggregating them.

The mean death estimate is now 246,000 in US and they didn't list the median. Looks to me to be a tad under 150,000. Can someone find that number?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

Any death is too many if it is someone you love.

I am 10,000 miles away from where my 83 year old mother lives....and I can't do anything about that now. How about everyone here just go for a run and talk about that on this forum.

12 months ago I was in Aarhus getting ready to watch the best runners in the world compete and today I am ready this stuff.

Checking out!

According to FiveThirtyEight Hillary Clinton is President. I like the website, but my friend who is a physician in the Veteran's Administration is certain this estimate is way too low. Just my two cents.

zizek wrote:

tin can man wrote:

The democrats want it to be as bad as possible - high death toll and ruined economy - so they can blame Trump and potentially win the election in 2020. And if they win, they will use coronavirus as a reason why we need EXTREME SOCIALISM.

Just look at the BS that the democrats proposed for the stimulus bill and what things actually ended up in it.

you have the intellect of a five-year-old.

This compares to the intellect of a dem-lib, which is that of a 2-year old.

zizek wrote:

tin can man wrote:

The democrats want it to be as bad as possible - high death toll and ruined economy - so they can blame Trump and potentially win the election in 2020. And if they win, they will use coronavirus as a reason why we need EXTREME SOCIALISM.

Just look at the BS that the democrats proposed for the stimulus bill and what things actually ended up in it.

you have the intellect of a five-year-old.

Why would the democrats put climate change stuff in a coronavirus stimulus bill? Or millions of dollars for art centers? Try to eliminate postal service debt? Extend visas, require same day voting registration, and so many unrelated things?

Why did the democrats call Trump racist when he banned travel from China in January?

Because they want coronavirus to cause a lot of damage, it's their only chance to win the presidency. Bill Maher already admitted he hopes the economy tanks to hurt Trump's election chances. All democrats are thinking that, they just won't say it out loud.

What a drag it is getting old.

Math Professor wrote:

COVID math wrote:

The 246,000 is a number generated by FiveThirtyEight based on a survey of several experts.

So who are these so called "experts" and what do they base their numbers on? Seems like every piece I see claiming someone is an "expert" does not in fact know anything about statistics and is pulling numbers out from their behind with beginner level mistakes.

I trust the 538 math more than I would ever trust math, or opinions, from someone like "you." They tell how who they did it. "You" just whine.

Please take the time to read any of the reports from Imperial College London (

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

). The most recent report is here:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Their model shows that if the world did nothing about the coronavirus, there would have been 7.0 billion cases this year and 40 million deaths. If we reduce social contacts by 50%, they show that we can halve the number of deaths to 20 million. Finally, if we shut down society (schools, sports, universities, any large gatherings, etc.) by reducing social contacts by 75%, then we can reduce the number of global deaths in 2020 by coronavirus to 1.8 - 10 million. The range of 1.8 - 10 million deaths is so broad, because they model if society shuts down early (0.2 deaths/100,000 people/week) and late (1.6 deaths/100,000 people/week). For North America, these two shutdown scenarios result in deaths between 92,000 and 520,000.

Obviously the range of cases and deaths in the previous paragraph are huge as are the ranges in the 538 article. But the ranges are because it is hard to predict what society will do or is doing. I believe we are in the social shutdown scenario, but it certainly seems like many people do not take the call for social distancing seriously. Please take it seriously.

Milan's Champions League Match on February 19 is being called a biological bomb for the way it spread the virus. New Orleans's Carnival parties appear to have done the same thing to Louisiana. Stay safe. Stay home.

wejo wrote:

This is the best places I've seen of them asking a group of experts for their opinions and aggregating them.

The mean death estimate is now 246,000 in US and they didn't list the median. Looks to me to be a tad under 150,000. Can someone find that number?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

Yes, this post makes perfect sense. On my now deleted post citing the verified CDC flu numbers, Wejo said I "need to not say things that aren't factually true (yes, a double negative) & to "not cite facts out of context." 24,000 flu deaths and 155 pediatric deaths, with 6 pediatric deaths in the last week is in perfect context and demonstrably accurate.

The linked article has no facts, no sources, no names, no nothing, just blatant speculation with no accountability. It's no better than a bunch of people throwing a dart at a dart board. And let me guess, because I opened my mouth again and pointed out the hypocrisy, I'm going to get sent to the corner.

#journalisticstandards

#trysome

tin can man wrote:

zizek wrote:

you have the intellect of a five-year-old.

Why would the democrats put climate change stuff in a coronavirus stimulus bill? Or millions of dollars for art centers? Try to eliminate postal service debt? Extend visas, require same day voting registration, and so many unrelated things?

Why did the democrats call Trump racist when he banned travel from China in January?

Because they want coronavirus to cause a lot of damage, it's their only chance to win the presidency. Bill Maher already admitted he hopes the economy tanks to hurt Trump's election chances. All democrats are thinking that, they just won't say it out loud.

And you would sacrifice your older family members to have a figurehead for white supremacy in the White House.

Either way it's bad.

Shutting down the economy sacrifices the old, the young, and many in between because nobody will have food and people will kill for basic needs.

The Democrats wanted competent leadership to head this off, just as they did so in 2009. And that is also why the Democrats came together with the Republicans to pass the $2 trillion bill, as well as multiple others, in total contrast to the behavior of the Republicans in 2009 in the worst recession since the Great Depression, where they all but three in the Senate voted against a much smaller stimulus bill in the face of a quarter with -6.8% growth.

From March 12 to March 26, a period of 14 days, the U.S. saw cases rise from 1685 to 85,000, a growth rate of a shade under 33% per day. We are now at about 102,000 cases with another 17,000 in the past day and 312 deaths in that day, 1607 total. We had a 24% increase in deaths in one day, putting us on target for 13-14,000 deaths in ten days and roughly 876,000 cases total by that time.

Obviously, those cases are the ones more likely to be bad, so there is probably a much higher total number of cases in the country.

Why would they put climate change stuff in the bill, etc.? Because this series of bills is going to put the country in a major financial hole (and perhaps it would have been even greater without it) that Republicans will use to argue, in a Biden presidency, means that the government should shelve every single Democratic priority to avoid the enormous tragedy of dramatic climate change. This one hastily considered bill is greasing a lot of Republican campaign donors palms right now and it would be better if it were actually accomplishing some necessary long-term measures, such as providing for universal health care before millions of families are bankrupted by coronavirus care + the enormous recession that will take place.

You can multiply their number by 5. We are not out of anything yet. We could easily have 1-1.5 million deaths.

I will be surprised if the number of deaths in the United States reaches 30,000 by year end. At some point the virus will peak and recede, probably as we close in on summer.

I am of the opinion that it has clearly been here since January and probably many 100s of thousands already had mild cases of it. I also think some people are just oddly immune, as was seen on the quarantined cruise ship. Only 20% of passengers tested positive for it after being locked in a ship filled with the virus and other sick contagious people for weeks on end

So what they’re saying is that we will have about 2-3x the number of deaths we have every year from an average flu season...

I’m willing to bet we end up with less than 50,000 total deaths

One way of putting it is that the number of Americans who will die of medical complications will be a couple percentage points higher than the historical average

Deaths or not, the impact is huge. Also, most projections are based on trying to limit the damage. So far trump has tried to make it worse.