Deaths and new cases in New York will continue to track so long as the trains are still running (which they are). Only 36% of New Yorkers own cars, so what is the alternative? Basically, in NYC, this is simply going to run its course as people pretty much have to use a public transportation system that is a breeding ground for this disease.
wejo wrote:
NY went from 2300 cases to 17,000 in a week. Best hope is a lot of these cases were from prior to the lockdown and we'll see the growth rate stop soon as positive cases lag infection and deaths lag even more.
It has been reported that they 'think' the big increases are in-part, in-whole, or not at all due to now having adequate numbers of tests. The rate may have been 17.000 a week ago but there were very few tests. There is no way to know if the number of cases is growing, stagnent, or decreasing until we get another week under our belt with adequate testing.
not my real name wrote:
Are you referring to the WHO who initially told us that it wasn't transmissible through community means, since that's what the very honest communist chinese gov't told them? That WHO??? ...and then changed their tune since they had no choice but to contrast the chinese since the facts were glaringly obvious and they couldn't provide cover for the chinese gov't anymore? that WHO? yeah, they're super reliable, thanks!
Runningart2004 wrote:
Why do you think the CDC/WHO reacts differently to COVID-19 than the flu? Perhaps because they know what they are talking about?
Alan
Sure, I'd rather trust some anonymous jackwad on letsrun.com. or Rojo.
unemployedquestion wrote:
Harambe wrote:
Ah yes, so Covid is still killing more people. Thanks for clarifying that.
Nothing easier than beating the conspiracy denialists to death with a 4th grade math textbook. Easy work.
You do realize there’s a vaccine for the flu and it’s still killing all those people right? And it’s killed 215 average every single day since Jan 1, right? Not just one day, but 85 straight days... with a vaccine out there also lowering the death count... but we don’t let that destroy our economy every year
The innumeracy on these boards is staggering. Enjoy your $1200 stimulus, I'm sure youll need all of it.
It's not an apples to apples comparison.
The testing rate for coronavirus is higher than testing for the common flu.
There also seems to be a conflation issue where an older person who has an underlying condition and dies will be grouped as a coronavirus victim.
A person who has the common flu and then dies may not get tested for the flu and may not get counted as a "flu death".
gully much? wrote:
The US had roughly 1000 cases 15 days ago, now 75,000.
The US also wasn't testing in mass quantity until the past week. The majority of the positive cases are mild. There have been only 1000 deaths with those 75,000 cases. The number of confirmed cases will continue to skyrocket as more tests are done. The mortality rate will subsequently continue to drop and reveal how absurd this whole mess has become.
unemployedquestion wrote:
The hospital system is not overwhelmed anywhere except in NY. With the exception of NY, no other state has more than a couple thousand cases. And with only a percentage of those requiring hospitalization, please explain how a state with more than a couple hospitals can’t handle a few hundred admissions.
15% of the infected are requiring hospitalization.
A couple of hospitals don’t have a couple of hundred respirators. That also don’t have a couple hundred empty beds. So they are going to hope the number of infected people doesn’t soar to high.
Many rural areas don’t have more than one hospital serving a large area.
Yaz ya wrote:
15% of the infected are requiring hospitalization.
A couple of hospitals don’t have a couple of hundred respirators. That also don’t have a couple hundred empty beds. So they are going to hope the number of infected people doesn’t soar to high.
Many rural areas don’t have more than one hospital serving a large area.
There have been 2000 cases in Florida... so 300 people at most have needed hospitalization by your numbers. 300 people in an entire state. Not an issue.
Did you really talk about rural areas? Rural areas are not population dense and are isolated by their very nature and therefore will likely not have an issue either.
unemployedquestion wrote:
land of enchantment wrote:
Quit blaming the media FFS. Do you think all of these billion dollar pro sports leagues shut down because they were scared of media reports or medical reports? Do you think Las Vegas shut down due to the media or epidemiologists?
They shut down because of the media blowback and negative press they’d receive if they didn’t comply with the media hysteria.
You really think the NBA, as a for instance, shut down immediately upon a player testing positive because of a fear of a media backlash?
TTH wrote:
They shut down because of the media blowback and negative press they’d receive if they didn’t comply with the media hysteria.
You really think the NBA, as a for instance, shut down immediately upon a player testing positive because of a fear of a media backlash?[/quote]
Yes, I do think that was the major driving force behind their decision.
unemployedquestion2 wrote:
Yaz ya wrote:
15% of the infected are requiring hospitalization.
A couple of hospitals don’t have a couple of hundred respirators. That also don’t have a couple hundred empty beds. So they are going to hope the number of infected people doesn’t soar to high.
Many rural areas don’t have more than one hospital serving a large area.
There have been 2000 cases in Florida... so 300 people at most have needed hospitalization by your numbers. 300 people in an entire state. Not an issue.
Did you really talk about rural areas? Rural areas are not population dense and are isolated by their very nature and therefore will likely not have an issue either.
I think of rural areas because the rural county I live in has 35,000 people living here and only 256 hospital beds. The main idea is to have enough medical access to get the people that can be saved the medical attention they need. There will be some people that will die no matter what, but there will also be those that die because there was not enough medical attention available.
Eventually about 65% of the population will need to catch the Coronavirus before herd immunity starts to take effect.
Looking at Florida’s numbers in the past is just like a sportscaster saying “Well the Vikings have never lost when the temperature is below 32. “ The problem is in thinking that is going to be the case in the future.
gully much? wrote:
unemployedquestion2 wrote:
I live in Florida where the response for a long time to this was minimal and this was essentially allowed to run its natural course - significantly unimpeded - for many weeks until very recently. To date we have total 1950 cases and 23 deaths. Only a fraction of the 1950 cases required hospitalization and only a fraction of those actually required intensive care. I don't see how that could be seen as a threat to our economy and healthcare system if after 2 months of unchecked virus time passed in a state of this size and with that many elderly people we have dozens of hospitals that didn't even see an admission (there are 303 hospitals in Florida). What HAS ruined our economy is making healthy people stay home and shutter their businesses. Nationally, at-risk people should have been immediately isolated and that should have been the extent of all this. NY is the only place possibly starting to feel the healthcare squeeze and that's because there were 4million people riding subways. If they had shut down the subways then NY would have a fraction of the number of cases and be like all the other states.
It’s been 25 days since Gov. Ron DeSantis first announced the coronavirus had arrived in the Sunshine State. As of Wednesday, testing has widely expanded throughout the state and more than 16,000 people have been tested for the highly contagious virus.
Numbers from the state saw a jump between Wednesday morning to evening by 295, bringing Florida’s new total by 6 p.m. to 1,977, including 110 non-Florida residents in the state who have contracted COVID-19.
The fact that you feel completely comfortable writing off a pandemic in its infancy (3 weeks after it started in FL) shows you have a cursory understanding of how this all works.
The US had roughly 1000 cases 15 days ago, now 75,000.
The US had a lot more than 100O cases 15 days ago, maybe even 75k or more. Just because we hadn't been counting doesn't mean they weren't there, but it does change the face of the Crisis.
unemployedquestion2 wrote:
TTH wrote:
They shut down because of the media blowback and negative press they’d receive if they didn’t comply with the media hysteria.
You really think the NBA, as a for instance, shut down immediately upon a player testing positive because of a fear of a media backlash?
Yes, I do think that was the major driving force behind their decision.[/quote]
The league shutdown a $75billion business because of the media?
You are quite the toad.
Facts Matter would love to comment on this thread, but apparently there is a rule that new registrants can only post 20 times in the first 72 hours. Pretty ridiculous that they want people to register, but then they put limits on what they can post. Of course this could just be a BS, made up rule to shut Facts Matter up for a few days.
If you were thinking about registering, don't bother. What's the point if you can post as much as you want and more easily anonymously. They also don't have the common courtesy to answer you when you email them.
And they wonder why people don't register.
I think the virus is real, will kill alot of people and from outside view US is doing a horrific job. No doubt in mind US has most deaths per capita of any western world country the rate it's handling it, even overtaking Italy (per capita).
Alot of comments on the boards look like denial. I'm not sure when the penny will drop about how much worse then flu this disease is. It seems like arrogance to think American spirit will beat the disease.
Alan,
Remember that one time you snickered......
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2991057#2992360
The media NEVER goes overboard!?!!!!??!!!
:)
Remember the "Summer of the Shark" a few years ago? Media went crazy....total # of shark deaths world wide were actually lower than average.
Remember the "Bird Flu" aka avian flu? The new strands of the flu always have the potential to do catastrophic damage. The difference between today and 1918 is that we are technologically way more advanced and can deal with outbreaks much better.
I'd worry about the more common flu viruses that are becoming immune to the current vaccines. That will be the real killer down the road in another 50 years or so.
Alan
TTH wrote:
unemployedquestion2 wrote:
You really think the NBA, as a for instance, shut down immediately upon a player testing positive because of a fear of a media backlash?
Yes, I do think that was the major driving force behind their decision.
The league shutdown a $75billion business because of the media?
You are quite the toad.[/quote]
Pffffffttt! That's nothin.
Trump shut down a $22 trillion economy because of the potential media blowback. He basically said as much in the Fox interview with Bill Hemmer. I was surprised he was so open about that.
unemployedquestion wrote:
The hospital system is not overwhelmed anywhere except in NY. With the exception of NY, no other state has more than a couple thousand cases. And with only a percentage of those requiring hospitalization, please explain how a state with more than a couple hospitals can’t handle a few hundred admissions.
Shutting things down is NOT based on how many cases there are NOW, but on how many cases there WILL BE in the absence of shutting down. We need to learn from the places that successfully nipped this in the bud. Seems the two effective strategies are:
1. Test everyone, isolate those who test positive and find their contacts, or,
2. Shut things down to limit spread.
Unfortunately, we were not, and are not able to do sufficient testing in the US, so that option is out. Some good modeling indicates that each day delay in reducing spread is associated with a 40% increase in the total number of cases.
unemployedquestion2 wrote:
real info wrote:
If the current vaccine was entirely ineffective, with a new one at least a year away, and the number of flu deaths was rising exponentially and starting to overwhelm the medical system unless drastic measures were taken, HELL YES we would shut down the economy if that's what it took to survive. Good grief, do you even think before you write?
I live in Florida, one of the states being accused of irresponsibly handling all of this, and to date we have 1900 cases and 23 deaths. Only a percentage of that 1900 has required hospitalization. There are 303 hospitals in Florida. That means dozens of hospitals haven't even had an admission for this illness. The correct response would be urging only the at-risk people to be on lockdown/isolation, not trash our freakin economy and make hundreds of thousands (oh wait sorry, millions now) of people go on unemployment
You are 100% on point with this.
Worldwide we have 530'000 people infected and 24'000 deaths - a 4.5% death rate which of course includes people of an advanced age, health complications, people who smoke etc and as we now know some healthy people unfortunate enough to have bad initial to responses to infection (chaotic interferon overload) which have lead to complications. The US has 84000 active cases with around 1000 official deaths.
In the US alone unemployment jumped from 215k to 3.3 million in ONE MONTH. Many people championing (and I use as a sample the people I know) the current courses of action are of course in very privileged positions of not having to worry about this (salaried full time employment).
Put it this way, if COVID-19 was a completely asymptomatic virus what would we do (btw the world is full of asymptomatic viruses that we all carry), what would we do? Answer would be nothing - we wouldn't need to. So we are, as you said, doing this solely to protect at-risk people. But at what point do those people simply take it on themselves with respect to extra precaution and common sense? Are we okay shutting down society and okay with so many people in our society losing jobs and digging themselves into long-term holes just because of this? This can't be the answer, it simply can't.
I wonder then since we are making such enforced sacrifice for at risk people (which include for example smokers), do we get to enforce sacrifice for them once this is over? Next time I see someone plowing through a box of Marlboroughs do I get to enforce a sacrifice by grabbing the cigarettes and tossing them? Explain how that wouldn't be fair and reasonable?
It probably wouldn't be seen as acceptable and to be honest neither are the overtly extreme measures we are taking that as you said are trashing our economy and literally ruining the lives of considerably more Americans than COVID-19 will. That is not even up for debate.
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Des Linden: "The entire sport" has changed since she first started running Boston.
Matt Choi was drinking beer halfway through the Boston Marathon
Ryan Eiler, 3rd American man at Boston, almost out of nowhere
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion