Thoughtful and well done. Thanks for addressing my question.
Thoughtful and well done. Thanks for addressing my question.
Oh, I just noticed this.
95% + 5% - 98.5% = 2.5% It should be 1.5%, but these are approximations anyway so your premise stands.
Citizen Runner wrote:
Honest Poster wrote:
So I think this was an interesting thread. It's a complex problem and an important one to fix, because man made or not, it's certainly affecting our climate.
I appreciate your insight. But to fisky's point, why did we continue to see an increase in atmospheric CO2 if emissions were down during lockdowns? It seems like using your formula, we wouldn't have continued on essentially the same trajectory in 2020.
There was about a 7% reduction in the anthropogenic term, so we emitted 93% of the 5% term in the carbon cycle budget.
95% + 0.93*5% - 97.5% = 95% + 4.65% - 98.5% = 2.15%
So the central expectation is slight reduction in the rate of growth, but that's obscured by the typical year to year natural variation. That this is to expected was the essence of my 4/29/2020 post.
So you debunked this whole thread a year ago and people kept posting BS for months?
I love LRC
fisky wrote:
[quote]Citizen Runner wrote:
Oh, I just noticed this.
95% + 5% - 98.5% = 2.5% It should be 1.5%, but these are approximations anyway so your premise stands.
There's a typo, but it's the 98.5% that should be 97.5%, so the approximation should have been
95% + 5% - 97.5% = 2.5%
to be consistent with the empirical data showing an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 equal to about half of annual anthropogenic emissions.
ICOS preliminary projection of 2021 CO2 emissions has been issued:
Global fossil CO2 emissions (excluding cement carbonation) in 2021 are returning towards their 2019 levels after decreasing [5.4%] in 2020. The 2020 decrease was 0.52 GtC yr-1 (1.9 GtCO2 yr-1), bringing 2020 emissions to 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (34.8 ± 1.8 GtCO2 yr-1), comparable to the emissions level of 2012. Preliminary estimates based on data available in October 2021 and a projection for the rest of the year suggest fossil CO2 emissions will rebound 4.9% in 2021 (4.1% to 5.7%), bringing emissions at 9.9 GtC yr-1 (36.4 GtCO2 yr-1), back to about the same level as in 2019 (10.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 36.7 ± 1.8 GtCO2 yr-1). Emissions from coal and gas in 2021 are expected to rebound above 2019 levels, while emissions from oil are still below their 2019 level.
Full report is here: