denialism dressed up as open inquiry wrote:
So Fisky says that if nothing changes, climate change is a hoax.
If CO2 levels drop then it is still probably a hoax.
That's not what he said at all. Read it more carefully.
No that is what he said.
Sigh... posters here throw around the word hoax without knowing what it means. What I hoped to convey was that we may soon have the ability to evaluate one of the major premises of AGW with real world observations!
Paraphrasing what I wrote earlier, if certain CO2 level parameters are met, it would invalidate AGW theory. OTOH, if it met other parameters, it would validate that part of AGW theory.
Let me explain what is happening so far. Many people think CO2 steadily rises, but it actually follows a seasonal pattern... up from Sept to May and down from May to Sept. These seasonal moves are surprisingly zig-zag... not a sine curve.
From Sept to Jan 1, this seasonal increase was similar to past years and a straight slope. HOWEVER, starting Jan 1 the rate of rise has dropped by roughly 75%. So far, that supports AGW theory, i.e., if we drastically reduce CO2 emissions, the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 levels would slow or stop.
Interestingly, there's a lot more fluctuation from week to week than normal. It has happened in the past so it must be some natural variable.
Anyway, back to my original post, we will soon be able to validate (or invalidate) one or more major premises in AGW theory by seeing what happens to CO2 levels by May. Specifically,
1. If atmospheric CO2 levels rise slower or stop rising, it proves that manmade CO2 emissions are the driving force in rising CO2 levels.
2. If the rise continues unabated, it would indicate that the rise has natural causes, not manmade CO2 emissions.
3. If CO2 levels decline, it indicates that CO2 is leaving the atmosphere much faster than models predict.
Regardless, you can anticipate articles on this topic by June. When you read them, you can just think, "Ha! I read that on LetsRun back in March!"
I can't post the chart itself, but you can go to this link and play around with the interactive data to see how CO2 levels have fluctuated on a weekly basis going back 50 years.