bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
True I got that wrong, but then you created a fictional scenario today whereby you claimed sanctuary cities and illegals would cause the spread of the virus even though Trump had already publicly announced they can receive testing without fear of deportation.
You got that spectacularly wrong.
Greg... wrote:
Rojo casting doubt about fringe claims instead of putting out a message in support of global public health
I see you, dawg
Great point
bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
trollism wrote:
bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
Innumeracy is rampant on these boards. Many people who post often would fail 7th grade algebra.
Nate Silver wrote:
bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
True I got that wrong,
Nate gave Trump a higher probability of winning than just about everyone except the LA Times. And he did a four part postmortem on why it was wrong. Respekt his name.
rojo wrote:
Nate Silver has some doubts about it.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1242514829610553347
Yeah, I won't be taking much notice of a guy whose main gig is analysing opinion polls and basketball players. That's thebproblem when someone is known for being "a smart guy", it's assumed they are knowledgeable about everything, see also Steven Pinker, a first rate linguist who likes to think he's a philosopher.
trollism wrote:
bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
Yes, he was actually criticized for giving Trump too high of a probability of winning. He knows what he's doing.
Harambe wrote:
trollism wrote:
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
Innumeracy is rampant on these boards. Many people who post often would fail 7th grade algebra.
Don't think that true bro, it's just people don't get too excited about spelling on message boards. In an actual test they'd concentrait way harder for sure.
thisdoesntmakesense wrote:
this makes no sense.. hasn't the UK done like 200k tests and only had ~2k positives? If it's infected 50% of people, you'd be able to randomly pick people off the street and chances are they would test positive... why are >90% of tests in the UK coming back negative??
Doesn’t work like that buddy. Testing for having it in the present against testing if you had it in the past are worlds away.
I cant quantify the number, but by living in UK I can offer a very limited anecdotal evidence that a fair number of people I know have been "grounded" with some of those symptom over the last few weeks. I bet is like that everywhere....
Nate "I guarantee Hillary will beat Trump" Silver?
His "genius" is pure hype.
Dur wrote:
Nate Silver wrote:
True I got that wrong,
Nate gave Trump a higher probability of winning than just about everyone except the LA Times. And he did a four part postmortem on why it was wrong. Respekt his name.
Please. He gave him a tiny chance of winning. I and lots of folks I spoke with thought he had a good chance.
Greg....fan wrote:
Greg... wrote:
Rojo casting doubt about fringe claims instead of putting out a message in support of global public health
I see you, dawg
Great point
Thanks
trollism wrote:
bartholomew_maxwell wrote:
Nate Silver also predicted Hillary would win the election..
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
The Hell he did.
He was at less than 15% per Silver.
Rewriting history.
Giving probabilities is making predictions
I had a bad virus in early January, which started after I attended a parkrun event (with 500+ people). The symptoms match up with those of coronavirus. The more I hear about this the more I am convinced that I had covid-19 in January. For reference I never otherwise get I'll, and I am 31.
here is real-time fever data from all over the US with internet-connected thermometers (validated with a six-year dataset on influenza published in Science in 2018). the interactive map is great, there are plots for each county with the percentage with fever over the last six weeks compared to the normal seasonal rate.
someone on the boards predicted distancing/quarantines could cause a drop in seasonal influenza, and that appears to be happening according to the company that collects and analyzes this data.
rojo wrote:
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1242489639971282944F Times wrote:
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all....
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
Here is the actual study:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
Let me guess, you are a trump/Bojo supporter? smh.
Let me guess you think that malaria drug is FDA approved? smh.
Go and sign up for herd immunity and infect yourself and your family. Come back and tell us how it does.
Giles Corey wrote:
trollism wrote:
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
The Hell he did.
He was at less than 15% per Silver.
Rewriting history.
Giving probabilities is making predictions
Pretty sure it was right around 30%. I'd say that's pretty good considering won the popular vote pretty commandingly and if one or two states had broken a little differently Hilliary would have won. 538 gave Trump higher odds than almost anyone else. I will say I lost confidence in 538's primary model this time around. It should build in some moel for when it projects candidates to drop out since its unrealistic everyone stays in it until the end.
Giles Corey wrote:
trollism wrote:
On the day of the election he gave Trump a 27% chance of winning.
It's not about making predictions, it's about probabilities.
The Hell he did.
He was at less than 15% per Silver.
Rewriting history.
Giving probabilities is making predictions
People underestimate the chance of "low" probability events happening. You are one of them.
intermediaterunner wrote:
I had a bad virus in early January, which started after I attended a parkrun event (with 500+ people). The symptoms match up with those of coronavirus. The more I hear about this the more I am convinced that I had covid-19 in January. For reference I never otherwise get I'll, and I am 31.
You had the flu
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
Red Bull (who sponsors Mondo) calls Mondo the pole vaulting Usain Bolt. Is that a fair comparison?