Should I take a loss and sells all my stocks?

Sounds like you made a mistake planning on using market funds within a year. Probably cut your losses.

Definitely not. There aren’t any guarantees but if it’s truly long term money you should just leave it (And in my view perhaps add to it if you have any extra money you won’t need now that stocks are on sale). No one can predict where the bottom is but I’m sure stocks will recover. Warren Buffett says he’s almost certain stocks will be a lot higher 10, 20 years from now. That’s all you need to know. Just set it and forget it would be my vote

buffett will be dead in 10-20 years why is that inspiring?

You should be loading up on stocks now. Who knows if we have bottomed quite yet but the market will be back to where it was in a year or two if not sooner.

You have already taken a huge loss.

Do you think there are more losses to come is the question

Advisers usually recommend holding some level of cash - in order to buy in times like this! It's dangerous to call a bottom on the market, but stock prices do NOT seem overvalued today.

yoloallmymoneyonspyputs wrote:

buffett will be dead in 10-20 years why is that inspiring?

Yet he still has a longer term view and more optimism than you. What does that say about you?

Inspiring??

Before you blindly follow everything Warren Buffett does, do know ....

1) Warren Buffett was indicted for financial market(s) manipulation in late 1960s

2) Buffett has been wrong, He has been wrong a lot. He is wrong about 20% or 30% of the time (in aggregate that is fantastic). How do you know when you are copying Buffett if this is not one of the times he is wrong?

3) Buffett has survived as a great investor by maintaining a significant amount of cash on hand, low debt and post indictment years, takes far less risk than hedge fund managers 1/2 his age.

If you are going to copy Buffett copy #3

Everyone's ignoring that OP said he needs the money in a year. Waiting 2-5 years isn't an option for him.

No one knows what this will look like financially in 3 to 6 months, let alone a year or two from now. You'll need to assess how devestating future losses are for your future plans vs. your ability to ride this out and pursue your plans.

I hope you can find a good solution, OP. If you have a financial advisor you trust, I'd talk to him or her.

Well, what businesses do you have stocks in?

Arlines, not too good

XBox, could be good

Did you buy something that just said “stocks”?

Stocks in socks may be good.

Giles Corey wrote:

You have already taken a huge loss.

Do you think there are more losses to come is the question

He hasn’t realized any losses because he hasn’t sold anything.

It goes without saying that you shouldn’t be in parking in equities with such a short time horizon. In my opinion everyone (especially boomers retiring soon) saw equities inching higher and higher and jumped in it with their shorter to intermediate/ term money, and the stock market usually doesn’t work so well for those people as anything can happen, any day, in markets.

I'm an optimist. It's an important election year, and the administration will do everything possible to prop the market short-term. So, I'd wait it out, for now...

erik wrote:

Everyone's ignoring that OP said he needs the money in a year. Waiting 2-5 years isn't an option for him.

No one knows what this will look like financially in 3 to 6 months, let alone a year or two from now. You'll need to assess how devestating future losses are for your future plans vs. your ability to ride this out and pursue your plans.

I hope you can find a good solution, OP. If you have a financial advisor you trust, I'd talk to him or her.

Well, let's not change what he said. He said he had some money that he had plans to use in a year.

My advice:

Don't sell any long-term investments.

As for your plan to use some money in a year? If it's possible, change your plans.

The market is down about 30% right now. So, whatever you were planning to do with that money just got 43% (inverse of 70%) more expensive if you're paying for it with stocks. If you don't understand that, pretend you had a stock worth $100 before the crash. Now, it's worth $70. To get $100 now, you would have to sell 1.43 stocks.

So, let's say you were going to buy a house in a year. Would you still buy the house, if the prices went up 43% and you knew they were likely to come back down to the same price within ~5-7 years? That's the same scenario you're facing when you sell stock right now.

Now, onto the scenario where you NEED money in 1 year. Timing the market is damn near impossible. But if I were in your shoes, this is what I think. #1 - the market is down because this virus will have a real negative impact on our economy, but it's also down, because of uncertainty. We don't know how bad it will get. My guess is, within a year, that uncertainty will resolve itself quite a bit, and stocks will recover a little bit just from that certainty. But, my guess is in the next month or two, stocks will continue to go down. In a year, will they recover to today's price? I'd say it's a coin-flip.

I would do just about anything to avoid selling in this current situation. My job is stable. If I needed money right now, I'd get a HELOC or something.

@OP,

COVID-19 is estimated by medical professionals to peak in mid to late April in the USA this year. Markets will continue to drop quickly for at least the next month. After the virus peaks it may be another month or two until it dies out. Optimistic estimate means late May is when the virus dies out and the economy and the markets can start picking up again. Conservative estimate is early/mid July.

Don't look at daily stock market trends, sometimes it'll tick up on random days but likely tick down the next. Super volatile right now. The overall trend is going to be downward for a while. This is likely a recession, and if so, recessions last an average of 6-10 months. If we assume this is a recession, we can also assume that it started in March, so that means it likely won't end until some time between September and January. To be conservative, sell your stocks and reinvest in debt securities like bonds and money market funds until the economy starts consistently ticking upward for multiple consecutive months, but be patient as this may be a few months into 2021 until you see this consistent upward trend. And I know its hard to cut your losses, but the sooner you make this prudent move, the less money you'll lose.

I'm not an expert, but I am a tax accountant if that lends any credibility to my opinion. Best of luck!!!

whatup wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

You have already taken a huge loss.

Do you think there are more losses to come is the question

He hasn’t realized any losses because he hasn’t sold anything.

That's important for tax consequence, nothing more.

If you had $1 million in liquid assets and not have $650k, you have lost $350k. Period.

As-of this moment, futures are limit down, suggesting the Dow will open around 18,000 tomorrow morning (down another 1,000 points). Personally, I think the market is likely going to drop to 15,000 at least. But, I think 12,000 is possible and probably would buy there. I'm all cash at the moment and waiting. Maybe the moment to buy is when restaurants appear to be close to re-opening, whenever that is.

dannydadio wrote:

I would not normally think about this. I'm younger, but have still gone through some down times in the market. Always held on long term.

But nervous that this is different. That it could get worse and not come back for a LONG time. I'm always long -term thinking when investing...but I do have money in there that I had some plans to use in a year.

Thoughts?

You should have sold everything already. Christ, have you heard of a stop limit?

Anyway, S&P will go under 1500. Plan accordingly.

PS - Please don't sell tomorrow. I feel a couple of triggers coming on.

BLtheKid wrote:

As-of this moment, futures are limit down, suggesting the Dow will open around 18,000 tomorrow morning (down another 1,000 points). Personally, I think the market is likely going to drop to 15,000 at least. But, I think 12,000 is possible and probably would buy there. I'm all cash at the moment and waiting. Maybe the moment to buy is when restaurants appear to be close to re-opening, whenever that is.

I agree that the bottom is likely to be below 15,000. Heck, the Dow could trade below 15,000 by Friday. That's nearly another 20% down.

I went all cash a week ago, except for a tiny holding of Zoom Video... not even 100 shares. I feel a lot more relieved. Looking back, I see how owning stocks and not wanting to take a loss clouded my judgement... that cost me about $20,000 AFTER I started thinking about getting out.

Oh, I meant to add this to my post, but I forgot.

Dow Futures are trading down 900 points to ~18,000 right now. I don't have a crystal ball, but I expect the bottom to be closer to 10,000 than 18,000. We are a long way from the bottom.

That's just an opinion, so take it as one.