With lockdown in Italy not being effective does that mean people are spreading it in their family?

fisky wrote:

Here is an article that sheds some light on the Italian epidemic. I knew the affected population was old, but I didn't realize how OLD they were. The author speculates... note, he guesses. Not a fact... that the spread in the senior population was nosocomial. That is, it was spread through hospitals and medical professionals to seniors. That, combined with the culture of hugging and kissing as a greeting, probably spread the disease widely in the senior cohort. Since the disease is asymptomatic for a while plus it being no more than a mild flu in some people, it's easy to see how it could get out of control quickly.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

Outstanding find there fisky!

- More of the patients that died were over 90 than were under 60 (they've got a really old population over there).

- Half of deceased had 3 or more serious diseases (they've got a lot of aging, sickly people there).

- There virus had been circulating in their hospitals & medical facilities very early on in Northern Italy, and as the author states: "if you let the virus into your hospitals and medical system you’re toast, no matter how flat the curve is."

This answers everything about the Italy situation - and maybe it will calm down some of the panic-stricken people (it's certainly not going to stop the fearmongering media).

Conclusion:A respiratory virus that has a very high risk of complications & death for the elderly with serious underlying health conditions.

I don't disagree that there is a lot fear mongering, but it is worth considering that hypertension + diabetes probably accounts for about 75% of American adults.

17th March 2020: Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):

49% had three or more health conditions

26% had two other ‘pathologies’,

25% had one.

The most common problems in the 355 who died were:

76% high blood pressure.

36% diabetes,

33% ischemic heart disease.

The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile – IQR 74.3-85.9). The median age of the patients who died was > 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 80.5 years – patients with infection 63 years). Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection were older than men (median ages: women 83.7 – men 79.5).

I don't see the point you are trying to make.

No point, just some interesting analysis of the Italian fatalities on that particular website

just passing by wrote:

I don't disagree that there is a lot fear mongering, but it is worth considering that hypertension + diabetes probably accounts for about 75% of American adults.

Right...which means we could be in some trouble if something isn't done with these people.

83% who get the virus have mild or no symptoms. And that 83% can be both young & older people (there are many healthy, very fit older people with no underlying medical conditions). The at-risk people are the biggest danger here. Compromised immune systems from underlying medical conditions increases their risk significantly of complications from respiratory track infections Why aren't these people identified and quarantine? The rest of us healthy and fit people are being punished for the increasing number of unhealthy people in this country.

If the President's coronavirus task force is so concerned with "most vulnerable of society" then get them quarantined right away!

just passing by wrote:

I don't disagree that there is a lot fear mongering, but it is worth considering that hypertension + diabetes probably accounts for about 75% of American adults.

And which are almost completely preventable (aside from Type I diabetes)

Go here and scroll down to "Daily New Cases in Italy"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

New cases falling since 21st March. You can bet they aren't testing less, they will be ramping up testing all the time.

So the lockdown is working, on schedule...

eurodonkey wrote:

Go here and scroll down to "Daily New Cases in Italy"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

New cases falling since 21st March. You can bet they aren't testing less, they will be ramping up testing all the time.

So the lockdown is working, on schedule...

It s not working.

They just reported another +6000 cases day, the second highest ever.

712 killed today as well

Assist feel wrote:

eurodonkey wrote:

Go here and scroll down to "Daily New Cases in Italy"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

New cases falling since 21st March. You can bet they aren't testing less, they will be ramping up testing all the time.

So the lockdown is working, on schedule...

It s not working.

They just reported another +6000 cases day, the second highest ever.

712 killed today as well

In Italy old people don't live alone in retirement communities. They live with a portion of their families two three four generations together.

The measures were not that strong for awhile, when they got stronger they have had effect. If you look at the Chinese data there is a lag of 10-14 days between when the measures affect the spread until you see it in the number of confirmed cases. Even with that lag, what you see in the data is that the increase in cases has dropped almost in half (in percentage terms, the metric that is important. The rate of deaths has correspondingly been declining. Also note that the US percentage changes about three times higher right now than for Italy, although they also are declining as states like Ohio and Kentucky and Maryland implemented restrictions relatively early in their states relative to the number of cases, and they are seeing almost linear, not exponential, growth.

Date %dCases %dDeaths

17-Mar 12.52% 15.93%

18-Mar 13.37% 17.38%

19-Mar 14.88% 15.90%

20-Mar 14.59% 18.41%

21-Mar 13.94% 19.67%

22-Mar 10.38% 13.49%

23-Mar 8.10% 10.99%

24-Mar 8.21% 12.21%

25-Mar 7.53% 10.01%

26-Mar 8.27% 9.49%

US

16-Mar 22.7% 41.7%

17-Mar 36.5% 27.1%

18-Mar 47.5% 38.9%

19-Mar 51.8% 36.7%

20-Mar 35.8% 26.8%

21-Mar 38.2% 30.8%

22-Mar 31.7% 38.5%

23-Mar 24.8% 23.1%

24-Mar 25.6% 37.4%

25-Mar 25.3% 31.7%

26-Mar 24.3% 23.4%

This statement indicates that you do not understand the nature of epidemics, you have to get the rate of increase to drop, and to continue dropping. And, since the confirmed cases is a lagging indicator, this means that the true number of cases was easing ten days before, and in ten more days you will see the 'growth rate' being negative and the number of new cases declining steadily.

See this piece and read it and try to understand it; if you cannot, then you probably do not have any useful insights in to the case numbers.

turd man wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

When did the lockdown start? It took 12 days before Wuhan saw a decline in new cases after starting the lockdown.

It’s also about how the lock down is policed. Many people in Italy are flouting the rules.

+1

Thats Italians for ya!

Them Jersey Shore morans are representing that here.

Stupid spaghetti benders. Fusilli fools.

Now that's telling it like it is wrote:

"Allen 53" has debated with these posters, "Facts matter" has debated with these posters and several others. All they do is make contemptuous remarks & insults that we're downplaying the situation. There's no civil discord with these posters and the "agree to disagree" conciliation doesn't exist.

I think you mean civil discourse - there's plenty of discord with them.

It's group pathos in response to fear. They're united by emotion, and it doesn't matter to them if the premise behind it is false; they are now bonded with a group identity, and contrary information is seen as an attack on the group and thus themselves. So they attack back. No reasoning with them, they aren't on that level.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Now that's telling it like it is wrote:

"Allen 53" has debated with these posters, "Facts matter" has debated with these posters and several others. All they do is make contemptuous remarks & insults that we're downplaying the situation. There's no civil discord with these posters and the "agree to disagree" conciliation doesn't exist.

I think you mean civil discourse - there's plenty of discord with them.

It's group pathos in response to fear. They're united by emotion, and it doesn't matter to them if the premise behind it is false; they are now bonded with a group identity, and contrary information is seen as an attack on the group and thus themselves. So they attack back. No reasoning with them, they aren't on that level.

I agree with this and with the quoted post. They're pretty pathetic.

One observation I'm taking away from this lovely interlude, is that one sure sign that an individual is panicking and not in their right mind, is their utter rejection and contempt for dissenting viewpoints, even when information is scarce and unknowns are high. These are the times people should be most open-minded, so when an attitude of "you're wrong and you're an idiot and you're risking millions of lives" etc pops up, that's a panicker.

The good news is it's easy to self-diagnose. Does the above sound like you? If so, you're panicking, you're not in your right mind, so calm down and try and keep your thoughts to yourself. Does the above sound like someone else? Ignore them, they're having a moment and being trivial and uninteresting.