With lockdown in Italy not being effective does that mean people are spreading it in their family?

Italy locked down too late and people didn’t take it seriously. Incubation could be even longer than 14 days. Children and young people may be asymptomatic carriers for days or weeks infecting grandparents at home. Italy can only test those who are sick enough to be hospitalized, there probably millions who have it that aren’t tested. Hospitals there cannot provide standard of care at this point.

These are all reasons for rising death rate and (apparent) high case fatality rate. Praying deaths slow down.

The Italian “lockdown” wasn’t really a lockdown like they did in Wuhan. People were still going out, public transport was running and people were still socializing because they had the same attitude of many on this board that it was an overreaction. The government had to call in the army to enforce the lockdown and has finally made it a real lockdown. It took Wuhan about a month in lockdown before the surge in cases reversed. Italy is going to be like this for another few weeks before they come out of it.

People are still in the food markets. Best option, if available, is order online, curbside pickup. Take care of yourselves. Lockdown is too leaky if people still group at the supermarkets.

Hardloper wrote:

When did the lockdown start? It took 12 days before Wuhan saw a decline in new cases after starting the lockdown.

It’s also about how the lock down is policed. Many people in Italy are flouting the rules.

Today is actually day 14 of the lockdown though it wasn't as strict in the rest of the country during the first week. People in my neighbourhood continued to socialise as well as meet up in parks until this last week when they threatened to bring in the army.

We should see the first signs of cases tapering off this week, else this becomes a real doomsday situation.

Because of the large Chinese connection of workers from Wuhan, Northern Italy had a large exposure since much earlier in the year after people returned from Chinese New Year. We are unlikely to see a drop off for another week from any kind of lockdown.

I am surprised that media hasn't talked about the connection between Northern Italy and Wuhan and another area Wenzhou which has a large immigrant population.

It will drop due to saturation, not lockdowns. Most have probably been exposed.

Also worth noting Italy is number 5 in the world in median age (46 years) making them more susceptible perhaps and also more vulnerable to unfavorable outcomes.

Both cases and deaths lower in Italy today than they were yesterday. Hopefully that will continue.

Meanwhile, both going up substantially in the US. I expect we may be in for a rough couple weeks

Bump. Italy finally saw a decrease in new cases from Saturday to Sunday and is on track to see a decrease again today according to the worldometer site.

Deaths should lag cases unless they are improving treatments. Cases may be going up if they expand testing. The promising sign is deaths flattening / starting to drop, as that means overall cases started dropping weeks ago. Cases could still go up as deaths decrease if they are testing more than just the people that require admission to the hospital, as they were doing in the past. Numbers are rising in the US, but the cases are going up at a greater rate primarily because they have expanded the pool of people being tested (they have gone from just testing hospital cases to testing people who are simply symptomatic). If you look at Italy approximately 1 death for every 10 cases, it is likely tied to them testing fewer people than a place like Switzerland that has 1 death for every 75 cases or Germany that has 1 death for every 235 cases. The truth is many more people have this than confirmed cases due to the testing criteria. Italy likely has millions of cases, they just haven't been tested. As long as people isolate, social distance and exercise basic precautions, the numbers will drop dramatically.

yep, absolute numbers may already be on the decline, and even if not, the RATE of growth has been on decline for several days (i.e., even before the weekend and its questionable data). so all signs suggest the italian measures are actually working.

Kvothe wrote:

Now that's telling it like it is wrote:

Right...that's the first logical thing I've heard yet. Locking up people like animals isn't going to solve this neither in the short or long term. The anti-viral drugs are the only thing to save mankind. Then they need to expedite on a vaccine and have it ready by the fall for next year's flu season. This 2020 not 1920 - with the computer power we humans have now, and some of the best scientists in the world, an anti-viral drug should have been ready by now.

save mankind? Even the worst estimates predict less than 10% mortality rate. Now nearly every western country may collapse when its economy gives out, but SK, Japan, China, and probably Germany will be fine. We're basically dumb monkeys anyways ascribing value to a bunch of stupid crap.

I like the ascribing value comment

Aussiestatman wrote:

Kvothe wrote:

save mankind? Even the worst estimates predict less than 10% mortality rate. Now nearly every western country may collapse when its economy gives out, but SK, Japan, China, and probably Germany will be fine. We're basically dumb monkeys anyways ascribing value to a bunch of stupid crap.

I like the ascribing value comment

Me too. Like ascribing value to life. Who’d of thunk it.

The 5 day average is old estimate. It’s misleading to make predictions based on old news when it has moved beyond that.

Italy’s lockdown is finally seeing light even though they are still far away from relaxing. Nobody will know the real numbers effected so we can only go on the death rates in hospitals.

Since last Wednesday Italy has been breaking the death rate record per day since the war every day. It’s now looks to have peaked.

They managed it terribly and it has been a disaster but it would have been a catastrophe all around the country instead of being high level in just a few concentrated areas. Spain is the next In line.

Ultimately with most of the world In lock down the curve will start flattening. Maybe only 100-200,000 will die globally and you will continue to argue it was the viruses natural course and nothing to do with the lockdowns. Thankfully you don’t get to make these decisions.

Hardloper wrote:

Bump. Italy finally saw a decrease in new cases from Saturday to Sunday and is on track to see a decrease again today according to the worldometer site.

Anecdotal, but I'm also hearing fewer ambulance sirens in my area. Expect a sharper drop after the lockdown was tightened last week.

Lockdowns don't really work, and they will confirm this after the fact when some who locked down have the same stats as those who didn't.

It may help slow the virus somewhat, which is worthwhile, but it's not going to stop it.

What's happened here, is lots of transport and food shops have now reduced their hours or shut. What does this mean in practicality ?

There is a higher density of people being packed onto fewer underground trains, so they are more likely to get the virus. My corner shop selling food now no longer runs normal hours, so I have to cram in with everyone else, or go to the main supermarkets and breathe the same air as a thousand other folk...what's the chances at least 10 of them have the virus ?

So all it's doing is funnelling the people into the same smaller areas. We still need to eat. People still need to work (if important, and there's a lot of people in that bracket).

Then you have a lot of folks staying in doors. No excercize, less vitamin d from the sun, leads to compromised immune systems. So when you get it, you're more likely to die if it's been a while.

The thing here in the UK they have done right, is to try and shield the at risk ones more. Whether that will be enough because of the issues above, I don't know.

Lockdowns do work to an extent, but they are not perfect. They are especially tricky with this coronavirus because people can spread it before/without showing symptoms. Forcing people to stay at home likely increases the likelihood of transmission within the household. This can be counterproductive in the short term, especially in countries where people live in large households or with multiple generations in the same house. Still, a lockdown as strict as the one imposed in Italy will slow the spread of the virus eventually.

It works to slow the curve. IT won't stop the spread. But that's the point.

In Spain once the situation got real, after a couple of weeks of people flooding supermarkets, they established a protocol all over the country. depending on the square footage of the supermarket, only x amount of people are allowed in. 5 out 5 in. Also 1.5m minimum spacing in queues.

Agree about the negative effects of being cooped-up indoors. but still, it was the only way to stop the curve and ultimately this was/is necessary, at least in spain, to save our health system.