With lockdown in Italy not being effective does that mean people are spreading it in their family?

The incubation period is thought to be 5 to 14 days so on day 14 there should be a drop off in cases. That would be the 24, I think. So if it increases then the incubation period is longer or fairly extreme social distancing is not working. There needs to be an anti-viral ASAP.

This is common sense. Who's the OP?

One thing that lockdown does is cause some people to be confined in buildings with the A/C constantly circulating bad air or dry air, which in turn dries out the mucous membranes, which leads to the body being even more susceptible to infection.

jhdjhd wrote:

The incubation period is thought to be 5 to 14 days so on day 14 there should be a drop off in cases. That would be the 24, I think. So if it increases then the incubation period is longer or fairly extreme social distancing is not working. There needs to be an anti-viral ASAP.

Right...that's the first logical thing I've heard yet. Locking up people like animals isn't going to solve this neither in the short or long term. The anti-viral drugs are the only thing to save mankind. Then they need to expedite on a vaccine and have it ready by the fall for next year's flu season. This 2020 not 1920 - with the computer power we humans have now, and some of the best scientists in the world, an anti-viral drug should have been ready by now.

Now that's telling it like it is wrote:

jhdjhd wrote:

The incubation period is thought to be 5 to 14 days so on day 14 there should be a drop off in cases. That would be the 24, I think. So if it increases then the incubation period is longer or fairly extreme social distancing is not working. There needs to be an anti-viral ASAP.

Right...that's the first logical thing I've heard yet. Locking up people like animals isn't going to solve this neither in the short or long term. The anti-viral drugs are the only thing to save mankind. Then they need to expedite on a vaccine and have it ready by the fall for next year's flu season. This 2020 not 1920 - with the computer power we humans have now, and some of the best scientists in the world, an anti-viral drug should have been ready by now.

save mankind? Even the worst estimates predict less than 10% mortality rate. Now nearly every western country may collapse when its economy gives out, but SK, Japan, China, and probably Germany will be fine. We're basically dumb monkeys anyways ascribing value to a bunch of stupid crap.

When did the lockdown start? It took 12 days before Wuhan saw a decline in new cases after starting the lockdown.

Computing technology doesn't influence how fast the body adjusts to the drugs...that's why you can't just expedite something based on the models...you still have to observe the human effects...

bartholomew_maxwell wrote:

Computing technology doesn't influence how fast the body adjusts to the drugs...that's why you can't just expedite something based on the models...you still have to observe the human effects...

Which is why some drugs are tested on mice because the effects can be observed more quickly and easily. But eventually they must be tested on humans which is going to slow things down inevitably.

It looks like it began the 10th of March.

I believe the problem may be that the infection is spreading by the trips to the grocery store and by essential workers who then transfer it back home. What else could cause spread to increase?

jhdjhd wrote:

The incubation period is thought to be 5 to 14 days

It can be 1 to 14 days, but the average is about 5. So there should have been a peak in new infections several days ago already, if the lockdown was effective. But there's no way to know if there were a peak or not.

There could have been 100,000 new illnesses five days ago, and only 20,000 today. But since their testing doesn't have the capacity to find even 20,000, it looks no different. And the illness lasts a few weeks, so their testing is going to continue finding those 100,000 people who got sick - mostly mildly - 5 days ago for the next week or two. They'll be "new" cases but really infected before the lockdown.

That wouldn't mean the lockdown was a good idea, it would mean it was pointless because too many people were already infected for it to make any difference. Down goes their economy, and the longer they're locked down the worse it gets. Unless they hold out until every single case is resolved, once they release the lockdown it will spread again.

Bad Wigins wrote:

jhdjhd wrote:

The incubation period is thought to be 5 to 14 days

It can be 1 to 14 days, but the average is about 5. So there should have been a peak in new infections several days ago already, if the lockdown was effective. But there's no way to know if there were a peak or not.

There could have been 100,000 new illnesses five days ago, and only 20,000 today. But since their testing doesn't have the capacity to find even 20,000, it looks no different. And the illness lasts a few weeks, so their testing is going to continue finding those 100,000 people who got sick - mostly mildly - 5 days ago for the next week or two. They'll be "new" cases but really infected before the lockdown.

Number of new cases is pretty meaningless because it depends on the numbers being tested. All countries are now trying to test more people as quickly as possible. Some like Germany are more efficient at it than others.

A more accurate measure is the death rate, but that will lag behind quarantine measures much more than new cases.

I read a couple of days ago an Italian medical officer saying that if would be around the 26th of this month (so Thursday) when we should see the quarantine measures having an effect.

If it was effective I believe there would have been a noticeable drop in reported cases. There has not been. I would give it a few days more.

Italy is fast going into spring (primavera) and this virus may follow the typical patter of others and disappear by mid-April.

It s a bit funny because before they were talking about 19-20 march

Talk about moving the goalpost.

Coevett wrote:

Number of new cases is pretty meaningless because it depends on the numbers being tested.

...

A more accurate measure is the death rate,

The second is calculated using the cumulative total of the first. They're both pretty meaningless.

Not knowing the true number of infected leads to fear taking over and assuming the worst, which is a terrible decision-making strategy.

For how many years have we failed to find a vaccine for the coronavirus that causes a fair percentage of the "common cold" cases?

dependsonview wrote:

For how many years have we failed to find a vaccine for the coronavirus that causes a fair percentage of the "common cold" cases?

Would you get vaccinated against "the cold" ?

Kvothe wrote:

Now that's telling it like it is wrote:

Right...that's the first logical thing I've heard yet. Locking up people like animals isn't going to solve this neither in the short or long term. The anti-viral drugs are the only thing to save mankind. Then they need to expedite on a vaccine and have it ready by the fall for next year's flu season. This 2020 not 1920 - with the computer power we humans have now, and some of the best scientists in the world, an anti-viral drug should have been ready by now.

save mankind? Even the worst estimates predict less than 10% mortality rate. Now nearly every western country may collapse when its economy gives out, but SK, Japan, China, and probably Germany will be fine. We're basically dumb monkeys anyways ascribing value to a bunch of stupid crap.

Well...on this forum for the last several days there's posters (such as Wuhan 400, jesselgarbage and others) who imperiously are saying that if the government doesn't immediately do a China-style enforceable lockdown then there will be millions dead. They've done nothing but fear-mongering painting a bleak picture. If you debate with them and offer a different opinion of the situation, then some of them will say you'll have "blood on hands" and none of us know what we're talking. They don't seem interested in debate but conflict (imagine that here).

"Allen 53" has debated with these posters, "Facts matter" has debated with these posters and several others. All they do is make contemptuous remarks & insults that we're downplaying the situation. There's no civil discord with these posters and the "agree to disagree" conciliation doesn't exist.

I've given up - they claim to know everything about pandemics and can forsee the future like they've time traveled or something. So, if saying the potention of MILLIONS of Americans will be dead from COVID-19, then, ya, we need to save mankind because millions dead would be the level of the 1918 Spanish flu.

+1

I've noticed the same thing. Something very fishy about this.

jhdjhd wrote:

It looks like it began the 10th of March.

I believe the problem may be that the infection is spreading by the trips to the grocery store and by essential workers who then transfer it back home. What else could cause spread to increase?

We will know so much more after the fact. But is there any evidence grocery workers are getting infected in much greater numbers? I’m not talking about doctors and people who are touching tons of infected people a day.

Hell I’m going to ask in my Trader Joe’s if anyone in there has gotten it. I’m not far from corona central in US. This type of data we will know after the fact but now.

Today Italy said they are shutting down factories . I get they may be willing to try anything at this point but everything lags 14 days. Is their evidence that people in factories presumable keeping distance are the ones spreading it?

People react to the numbers today but they key is what happened 10 days previously. That’s why states without the outbreak need to be proactive.