Memory quickly fades! wrote:
StillRunnin wrote:
2009-2010. Swine flu with nearly 61 million cases, hundreds of thousands of deaths, no known cure, a ‘strain we’ve never seen before’ and an official pandemic declaration for 1 full year . How quickly memory fades. To be fair, most people don't remember it because we were heading into a horrible economic downturn and folks were worried about keeping their houses and jobs, not a pandemic. Today you cannot look at anything without it being thrown in your face everywhere.
So well said! In a couple of years from now Corona is forgotten the same way. Yes! Memory quickly fades .
I strongly disagree with the embedded analysis and the approving comment. Although the 2009 H1N1 influenza (or "swine flu") outbreak was, indeed, an epidemic of global reach and therefore classified as a pandemic by WHO and the CDC, it posed nothing close to the dangers of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Perhaps most obviously, the 2009 H1N1 virus was orders of magnitude less lethal than COVID-19 appears to be.
For example, StillRunnin's figure of 61 million cases is an accepted estimate of the number of 2009 H1N1 cases in the U.S., but there were nowhere close to "hundreds of thousands of deaths" resulting from those cases. Rather, the case fatality rate for the H1N1 virus in the U.S. was only about 0.01-0.03% -- lower, in fact, than the median rate for typical seasonal flu epidemics -- with about 12,000 deaths attributable to H1N1 in the U.S. That case fatality rate was quite similar in other countries, and overall, the H1N1 infection of about one billion people has been estimated to have resulted in perhaps a quarter of a million deaths -- again, something in the range of about 0.01-0.03%.
In constrast, although case fatality rates in the current COVID-19 pandemic vary widely from country to country at this point, the overall rate is currently about 4% -- over 100 times the case fatality rate of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Some countries, perhaps most notably Italy and Iran, are experiencing much higher fatality rates (perhaps 8% or so), while other countries are showing case fatality rates below one percent, but the case fatality rates virtually everywhere are considerable higher for COVID-19 than for the 2009 H1N1 flu. In this regard, the COVID-19 pandemic is much closer to the 1918 "Spanish flu" pandemic.
The analogy to the 2009 H1N1 outbreak is questionable for other reasons as well, such as cross-immunities between the various flu strains and the relatively rapid development of a widely available vaccine for H1N1 in the fall of 2009.
I really wish that the current pandemic were more similar to the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak. But I haven't seen any authoritative source to support that comparison.