Realistically how long does the country need to be in 'lockdown' for?

Math Professor wrote:

Did you not even read the article about them already having sequenced the genome of the Coronavirus and have already created the vaccines? And starting the clinical trials? This isn't a dumb nurse on LRC saying she knows it all, it's multiple companies already having the vaccines and testing them on people.

You can't declare it works and is safe until after the test. Most of the time it doesn't work.

Hardloper wrote:

Math Professor wrote:

That "Wuhan-400" troll is a P.O.S. liar. You DO get immunity from the coronavirus after getting it the first time as evidenced by the existence of vaccines for it from China, Germany, and the US now in trials. It is also why so many people already show no symptoms of coronavirus even if they are infected because they already have immunity from past exposure:

There's no reason to believe those vaccines will work. Not saying it couldn't happen but don't count on it. It would be a miracle if any vaccine was working in under a year and like someone said, it could mutate fast and be like the flu vaccine that only works half the time

A vaccine may not be in the cards for the near term, but I'm confident an antiviral regime will be worked out, based on existing drugs, that will significantly lower the morbidity of COVID. There is now so much focus on the virus, that collectively the medical community should be able to develop a treatment plan within a few months.

Math Professor wrote:

Kvothe wrote:

You have any articles to support your fear mongering? I think getting covid-19 a second time would be like getting a second flu, no worse than the first.

That "Wuhan-400" troll is a P.O.S. liar. You DO get immunity from the coronavirus after getting it the first time as evidenced by the existence of vaccines for it from China, Germany, and the US now in trials. It is also why so many people already show no symptoms of coronavirus even if they are infected because they already have immunity from past exposure:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/safety-test-of-first-coronavirus-vaccine-starts-in-seattle-area/

Here’s a source (Chinese doctor) saying reinfection is possible, and happening there.

Hardloper wrote:

I don't see how we'll be in a better place 15 days from now. Known cases and deaths will lag actions taken so I expect those to keep doubling every 3-5 days. If we stay in lockdown mode we could stop the spread of the virus, but then if we go back to normal we'll just be susceptible to another outbreak because it won't be eradicated worldwide. We won't gain any kind of 'herd immunity' at this rate either (assuming that's even possible). I guess we're stuck in lockdown/extreme social distancing until there's a cure or until it slowly spreads throughout the population which could take years?

Two months.

Resume normality in the first week of June.

Yeah, it sounds harsh but it is necessary.

Good luck everyone.

This will be a long process. See what happened in China, and hope we do as well in halting the growth of new cases. Judging by Apple store closings and reopenings in China, China locked down for about a month and a half. Apple closed their 42 stores in China at the end of January/ beginning of February. They reopened their China stores March 12th. (Then Apple closed all their other stores in the entire world on March 14th, so they only have physical stores open in China now.)

China's lock down decreased their new cases from the highest day of 15,152 new cases on February 12th to only 21 new cases yesterday. That's why they can start trying to get back to work, though things won't be the same as before. Many social distancing actions will have to be maintained long term until a vaccine is available. People who have a lot of contact with others like TSA, basketball players, etc. might have to be monitored more. For example, maybe they should be tested for fever every morning. Or be tested for the virus frequently/daily if tests can be made cheap and quick. Once new cases drop down to such a low number, you can switch to a containment strategy, such as tracing contacts of new cases and putting those people into isolation until they pass the incubation period and test negative. So there has to be a lot of monitoring that is continued. But the know how, tools, practice will be there.

I think you said you aced statistics, so you would probably like all the data and graphs on this site

https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/

zzzz wrote:

...

China's lock down decreased their new cases from the highest day of 15,152 new cases on February 12th to only 21 new cases yesterday. That's why they can start trying to get back to work, though things won't be the same as before. Many social distancing actions will have to be maintained long term until a vaccine is available.

...

Yes, their draconian measures had a HUGE impact on the outcome in Wuhan.

They have to be very careful though 90% of the population have not had it yet. There could easily be serious flare-ups.

Wuhan itself is still in lock down isn't it?

The difference between China and Europe/North America is that China largely contained it to Wuhan and the surrounding areas.

We've started our lock downs AFTER it's spread everywhere. The point of our lock downs is not to contain it in a given area, as China's lock down of the Hubai province was, but to slow the infection rate nationwide so that our health services aren't overrun.

Unfortunately, this will likely mean they will go on until a vaccine is available, something all experts are saying is at least 1 or 2 years away. The best we can hope for might be to get a respite in the summer months.

Remember everyone would need testing every few days. Just because you are negative today has no bearing on whether you test positive two days from now.

The way I see it is this: there are 350 million people in the US. By most estimations, everyone will eventually get Covid-19. About 20% of those will need hospitalization if we go by other countries numbers. So, that means we will need to provide 70 million hospital beds. According to the American Hospital Association, there are about 1 million hospital beds in the US. Let's say the average Covid-19 stay is a week, that would mean we need to spread the infection rate over 70 weeks. Now if only 10% of the population needs hospitalized, we are looking at 35 weeks of this. Maybe I'm over simplifying this, but that's my take.

Hardloper wrote:

Star wrote:

The thought is a large percent of population is going to get regardless. Like you said.

Say 50 million people get it and 10 million need some kind of treatment (totally made up numbers to use as an example)

So it's better to treat those 10 million people in smaller groups broken up over time rather than all 10 million rushing in at once.

How long to lock down to spread it out?

Longer than they're saying.

Some will stay out and get it now. And that's good. Because otherwise, it just means one big rush later.

How long would it take the medical system to deal with 'only' 50 million (and only 10 million severe cases)? Years? And what if it's 150 million, or what if people can get re-infected by mutated strains like the flu?

I have no idea the answer to those questions except that 40 of the 50 million in that example would need no treatment, so the medical system wouldn't have to deal with that group. They stay home, rest, drink fluids and get better.

But that 10 million?

The longer treatment for them stretches out, the better.

Of course the longer that takes, the worse the economy gets.

I’m curious if people think this will realistically be implicated here in the US within the next week? I’ve had people tell me it certainly will and others say it will not. Will the entire nation go on lockdown?

kli66 wrote:

Will the entire nation go on lockdown?

No

We don’t know and neither do our governments. Because of the ineptness of our repugnant president and his administration we have very little data to base our decisions on. The idea of social distancing and staying put make sense but do not come with any transparency about future decisions or deadlines and why. Until we have testing nation wide we do not have solid data to use.

Hopefully for a long time. My commute has been awesome this week!

bloviating wrote:

We don’t know and neither do our governments. Because of the ineptness of our repugnant president and his administration we have very little data to base our decisions on. The idea of social distancing and staying put make sense but do not come with any transparency about future decisions or deadlines and why. Until we have testing nation wide we do not have solid data to use.

I don't think T D S "victims" realize how much that hate compromises the immune system.

its a giant scam the elites are using to crash the markets so they can swoop in. also it will help bring about the cashless society they want even faster. stores around here are refusing cash transactions (totally illegal) because its more like to be 'contaminated'.

Hardloper wrote:

I don't see how we'll be in a better place 15 days from now. Known cases and deaths will lag actions taken so I expect those to keep doubling every 3-5 days. If we stay in lockdown mode we could stop the spread of the virus, but then if we go back to normal we'll just be susceptible to another outbreak because it won't be eradicated worldwide. We won't gain any kind of 'herd immunity' at this rate either (assuming that's even possible). I guess we're stuck in lockdown/extreme social distancing until there's a cure or until it slowly spreads throughout the population which could take years?

Wuhan locked down when there were 400 reported cases and they ended up with 80,000+ cases.

So, there are A LOT of cases we don't know about....and therefore a lockdown is really important if you care about the virus getting contained.

be patient.....or it will get worse. If our country can't be patient, we're really going to see the trouble. We're still behind Italy in terms of understand the extent of the outbreak. It will be much worse than it is and that's why everything is getting canceled...because it hasn't even gotten bad yet but people know it will.

Think of it this way: It's a running injury you got in a race where you are really starting to get fit and you want to keep things rolling. Instead of resting and taking it easy for a week or so, you continue to run/train on it for a few weeks. You end up screwing it up much worse and can't really run for 4-6 months because of the injury. If you would have just rested and strengthened it for 10 days you could have been running after 3 weeks.

That's what's going on here if people can't just chill out and avoid contact with people.

Hardloper wrote:

[quote]Star wrote:

The thought is a large percent of population is going to get regardless. Like you said.

Say 50 million people get it and 10 million need some kind of treatment (totally made up )

Yea very made up and stupid numbers. Italy has 30,000 cases and a few thousand deaths with a population of 60million. In two months we’ve had 6,000 cases and 115 deaths. Ruining our economy for nothing!