Realistically how long does the country need to be in 'lockdown' for?

C.D.C. saying if you get corona 19 virus once is no guarantee one will not get it again, but if humans get this and survive, we most likely will survive the second time also. Flu mutates. Flu vaccine only reduces probability of getting flu by about 50%. Even a corona 19 virus will not guarantee safety. Since as humans, this is our first time with corona 19, we have to be careful. Our first year with this virus will be the worse. Humans will adjust. Spanish flu no longer wipes us out. This year we all have to be so careful. Many of us most likely have already been exposed and fought it off. I emailed C.D.C. in December stating I believe I already had it. C.D.C. emailed me, saying: We'll get back to you.

If people were disciplined enough to avoid contact with others for 4 weeks, the disease would run its course. But people are not disciplined enough in the US and in Europe to make it happen, so it will ebb and flow over a year or two before they can control it to an acceptable level.

finallyransub17 wrote:

Hopefully we'll have the capability for mass testing in 2-3 weeks and can move to a quarantine/isolate method of slowing the spread of the virus rather than lockdowns. The key is knowing more about the virus, knowing where the virus is and who is likely in contact with it, testing those people, and keeping others away from them, and overall, buying ourselves time on therapeutic drugs, vaccine development (still 1+ years away), and best practice treatment methods. The more we know, the more efficient decision making will be. It's worked so far in South Korea (though with more GOVT. privacy invasion than people would ever tolerate in the US).

That makes sense but it sounds like it will still be a long battle ahead. For example while South Korea has it contained I don't see what's to stop another outbreak from spreading like wildfire faster than they can detect.

joedirt wrote:

If people were disciplined enough to avoid contact with others for 4 weeks, the disease would run its course. But people are not disciplined enough in the US and in Europe to make it happen, so it will ebb and flow over a year or two before they can control it to an acceptable level.

It could run its course but what's to stop it from re-appearing or re-entering the USA and breaking out again? It won't really be under control without extreme social distancing until there's a cure or vaccine and that could be years if ever.

educated runner wrote:

Realistically, Italian style lockdown for 1-2 months. It will take a few weeks to even notice, and much longer will be difficult economically.

^This, probably.

Italy went from 0 to 2500 deaths in one month...

SDSU Aztec wrote:

There will be a vaccine rather than a "cure".

Hope it's better than the flu "vaccine"

45% this year. Still not very good.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182

Notice that article was Feb. 21. Before the covid 19 in the U. S.

The shut down will last as long as there's still major political pressure to keep the country shut down. No politician wants to be the first to suggest doing less.

We have spread this out so far that any loosening will noticeably increase the infections. Therefore, we are screwed.

I am not a public health expert by any stretch of the imagination but what a lock-down does for us is it helps reduce or spread over a longer time span the number of individuals who are so sick that they require hospitalization. What this does is it prevents a situation where sick individuals cannot get access to the type of medical care that might be required. There are only so many ventilators and hospital beds in the US or in any major metropolitan area. Once the number of sick people exceeds what the medical system can handle - then you have a real problem on your hands and mortality rates go up sharply. So while anti-viral drugs may be available at some point I think the real reason for extreme measures now is to try to limit the number of very sick individuals in a few weeks.

Indefinitely.

op gets this, i think. the question is, what is going to be different if we go back to our lives in 2 weeks, 2 months, 6 months or whatever. as soon as people go back to normal, is it not going to spread like wildfire again?

That is unless it is at all possible to completely eradicate it.

this is the issue. nobody is saying what they think things might look like at an undetermined point in the future. nobody is saying what things NEED to look like in order for us to return to activity. And there's a reason they're not telling us anything. because it's ridiculously long term and they have no answers.

I’ve read a few articles about the possibility of injecting the blood of survivors into others, thinking they would receive antibodies and become immune or less susceptible. This type of thing has been done before modern vaccines.

The advantages are huge, it would basically be normal blood donation and transfusion. We have the knowledge, facilities, and infrastructure to do this safely ASAP. This technique could be a stand-alone solution or part of package of strategies that help knock Covid 19 down. There is no development and testing phase, it’s not dangerous, the effectiveness and ramp-up are the variables. If this works, you wonder if they might ask for low-risk volunteers to be voluntarily infected.

Kvothe wrote:

Wuhan-400 wrote:

Only problem is you can be re-infected with about 10 days, no acquired immunity, second infection far more lethal, thus the video of young people walking along like normal, then face planting, not even using arms to break their fall. Just like you would lose no sleep over elderly, neither would governments, and the steps they've taken would only be logically done if things were as bad as I described.

You have any articles to support your fear mongering? I think getting covid-19 a second time would be like getting a second flu, no worse than the first.

That "Wuhan-400" troll is a P.O.S. liar. You DO get immunity from the coronavirus after getting it the first time as evidenced by the existence of vaccines for it from China, Germany, and the US now in trials. It is also why so many people already show no symptoms of coronavirus even if they are infected because they already have immunity from past exposure:

high school xc coach wrote:

op gets this, i think. the question is, what is going to be different if we go back to our lives in 2 weeks, 2 months, 6 months or whatever. as soon as people go back to normal, is it not going to spread like wildfire again?

That is unless it is at all possible to completely eradicate it.

this is the issue. nobody is saying what they think things might look like at an undetermined point in the future. nobody is saying what things NEED to look like in order for us to return to activity. And there's a reason they're not telling us anything. because it's ridiculously long term and they have no answers.

Yeah exactly

Math Professor wrote:

That "Wuhan-400" troll is a P.O.S. liar. You DO get immunity from the coronavirus after getting it the first time as evidenced by the existence of vaccines for it from China, Germany, and the US now in trials. It is also why so many people already show no symptoms of coronavirus even if they are infected because they already have immunity from past exposure:

There's no reason to believe those vaccines will work. Not saying it couldn't happen but don't count on it. It would be a miracle if any vaccine was working in under a year and like someone said, it could mutate fast and be like the flu vaccine that only works half the time

Lock down until 3rd of July.

So that Donald can have a nice Parade on the 4th.

stay with the program comrade wrote:

Look, yes, Trump was claiming this was all nothing and would go away and was just the radical left creating a hoax - but that was yesterday. Today he is saying that he always knew it was very serious and would be a pandemic before they even said it would be a pandemic. He knew and he's clear that he never actually downplayed it and always took it very seriously than the left ever did. So stop this. As a Trump lover you need to remember you don't care about truth -what you care about is what your commander in chief says is true - and what he says is now true is that its a big deal and it's going to last. So get with the program. Stop with yesterday's opposite message and get on board with today's message.

Why do you care some much what Trump has said or not said? It really makes no difference. This virus would have spread in the US no matter what - evidence every other western country. And the US will follow every other country, more or less, in the measures to control it.

If your present life revolves only around what D.T. thinks and does, I think you should give yourself a good shake and start down a better path.

Hardloper wrote:

Math Professor wrote:

That "Wuhan-400" troll is a P.O.S. liar. You DO get immunity from the coronavirus after getting it the first time as evidenced by the existence of vaccines for it from China, Germany, and the US now in trials. It is also why so many people already show no symptoms of coronavirus even if they are infected because they already have immunity from past exposure:

There's no reason to believe those vaccines will work. Not saying it couldn't happen but don't count on it. It would be a miracle if any vaccine was working in under a year and like someone said, it could mutate fast and be like the flu vaccine that only works half the time

Did you not even read the article about them already having sequenced the genome of the Coronavirus and have already created the vaccines? And starting the clinical trials? This isn't a dumb nurse on LRC saying she knows it all, it's multiple companies already having the vaccines and testing them on people.