How long until the Olympics get cancelled?

East Asian countries seem to be able to contain this thing. Maybe something in wearing face masks after all?

It's possible they could still hold it but ban foreign spectators and test every athlete upon arrival. They're even considering holding all events behind closed doors. Will still probably have a better atmosphere than Doha.

The world needs a televised global event like this for the millions stuck at home.

A lot of countries are obviously banning international travel but maybe they will make an exception for Olympic athletes, especially if the containment measures start to work in the next few weeks.

The Japanese Prime minister says that Olympics can follow the original plan.

Personally, I don't see how Olympics can start at the end of July.

For the organizers, it seems the main problem to solve is to have Japan "safe" so athletes and spectators can go there without fearing infection of Corona Virus.

But they forget the most important factor : Olympics is the biggest complexed event of sport, the main actors are the athletes, and it's not possible to have Olympics with athletes who didn't have the opportunity to develop a proper type of training.

In Italy, at the moment there is the prohibition to do every kind of training in group (and for group we mean 2 people enouth). The soccer Clubs had to stop every type of training, and the players can do something at home, but of course training is something different.

For athletics, all the tracks are closed, there is no way to train for any event (technical, or connected with running).

In every part of the World, there were cancellations of the competitions in every discipline : Yesterday also San Paolo Marathon was cancelled. We are not sure the Diamond League can start in Doha (17th April) : already Qatar Government closed the flights to people coming from several Countries, and I don't see how vcan be possible to organize a meeting of DL when top athletes from 80% of the Countries are not allowed to fly.

So, the reality is that the athletes can't compete till all the month of May doesn't finish, supposing that we are able to stop the evolution of the virus. I'm not optimistic about this fact, because I still see a growing number, day by day, of new patients in Italy, that was the first European Country deciding very strict rules (quarantine for everybody, all the activity stopped with the exception of shops for food, pharmacies, and public services, everybody invited to use the mask, etc...), rules that the other Countries till now still didn't decide (from next Monday, Spain follows the same rules, and in short I'm sure also France, Germany and other European Countries have to follow). For all this reasons, it's clear the peak can't arrive before end of May in the most part of Countries, probably in US and UK postponed till July, because they decided for another strategy (practically the elimination of weaker people, that they don't want to protect, with the "idiotic" strategy to create an "immunity of mass", something that can happen in long time, after sacrifying thousands of people, because old or already with some disease).

I don't want to comment about the "solidariety" of similar behavior. I want only to say that, every solution we can adopt, we can't solve the problem in short time.

So, be sure Olympics can't follow the original plan. If we are lucky, maybe can start at the beginning of October, otherwise the only option is to move in 2021 or 2022, when we hope everything is over.

Renato, you have very good reasoning, however be sure that your arguments are not strong enough for the Games to be cancelled. The fact that many athletes in the world will not be able to train properly in the final months of preparation is not strong enough for the Games to be cancelled (or postponed).

It will be different Games, that's for sure, but in the midst of this crisis IOC officials and the Japanese organisers are already working on how to take advantage of this crisis to brand the Games very well - "bringing the world together once again after the coronavirus crisis", that's how they will do it. There will be a message from Thomas Bach to the athletes, recognising the impact to their trainings (and also qualifying competitions), but calling everyone to come in a "moment of union" under the power of the "olympic rings".

Certainly the testing and mitigation measures will be significantly enhanced for the Games, but at this moment, as the situation stands, this crisis is likely to bring more benefits than negative impact to the Olympic brand. The audience will be the highest ever and the world will applause the power of the Olympics to bring everyone together again.

there's a flaw in your reasoning which is when you say that the main actors of the Olympic Games are the athletes. Yes that's the story the IOC tells to the world and that's precisely what they want influential personalities in the sports world like you to believe. Let me tell you - they are not the main actors. Broadcasting is. And Media in general. As long as the public image of the IOC is positive and the Games are broadcasted as the "greatest spetacte on earth" the rest is "rest".

I admit there's a possibility that the Coronavirus crisis will intensify and the IOC (and not the Japanese Government, the IOC takes unilateral decisions in cases like this) is forced to postpone the Games (I think the chances of cancelling is zero). Yes, that's a possibility. But as the situation stands, with the Governments around the world now acting strong against the virus and the situation under control in China and South Korea already, it is very likely that in two months time (or less) becomes clear to everyone that the Olympics will go on.

Mark my words, the Olympics and the IOC will benefit hugely from this crisis.

I think a lot will depend on how the virus responds to warmer temperatures. A lot of people hope that warmer temperatures will reduce the effectiveness of the virus and it will be a concern during winter months only, such as the flu. However, this is a new virus and we really don't know what will happen. The virus is closer related to the common cold which tends to have a longer season than the flu and can also be caught at any time of the year.

At the moment countries currently in their summer months are reporting cases with several now exceeding over 100 cases, Australia, Brazil, Singapore. Most seem to be related to travel but there are cases of community transmission. Unfortunately the southern hemisphere is now heading into autumn so cases will continue to rise so we only have limited "summer" data available.

A lot will depend on what happens in April and May, if the virus does recede then some degree of normality may return, if it doesn't then all bets are off.

Raddison wrote:

I think a lot will depend on how the virus responds to warmer temperatures. A lot of people hope that warmer temperatures will reduce the effectiveness of the virus and it will be a concern during winter months only, such as the flu.

A lot will depend on what happens in April and May, if the virus does recede then some degree of normality may return, if it doesn't then all bets are off.

I bet even Greta Thurnburg is praying right now for climate change to do its best and give us the hottest summer ever...

Life in Japan is nothing like Italy or Korea, it's quite normal. Can't see why they won't let in (healthy) athletes to compete behind closed doors.

July is a good ways off and Abe said yesterday that the Games will happen. What the IOC will do is another question as is who will come.

I would bet it would be cancelled. Japan hasn’t been in the news as other countries about coronavirus bc they lack testing just like in the US. As a society as a whole, they are doing a better job of social distancing and more people than here are understanding that it’s much bigger than a flu. However, many people are still out and about bc of no lockdown. Once more people start testing, their numbers will skyrocket just like it would here.

Most governments at first didn’t want much disruption to their economy and putting health crisis second. However, they’re realizing now that only way to save the economy is to put this health crisis first or economy will keep tumbling.

Japan will go on total lockdown eventually and they will cancel Olympics as they don’t want the coronavirus to flare up with flood of tourists coming in. Also, IF Olympics were to go on, I wonder how all of the qualifications would go. I guess for this Olympics, selection process can be something different and be fine.

It would be awesome if the coronavirus has died down and Olympics can happen. Then it would be an awesome celebration of the world coming together during this time of global crisis.

It is not so much temperatures as sun exposure for vitamin D3 synthesis that affect seasonality. If you are not getting good sun exposure, even warm temps are not going to help your immunity.

So people are quarantined to stay in homes, but food and pharmacies are open? How do people access them?

YMMV wrote:

It is not so much temperatures as sun exposure for vitamin D3 synthesis that affect seasonality. If you are not getting good sun exposure, even warm temps are not going to help your immunity.

Interesting about the sunlight factor. I tend to be pretty healthy so don't pay too much attention to the common viruses that go round. But now I think about it I have had a lot less bouts of cold and flu since moving from England to Canada. The winters may be colder, but the clear blue skies make up for it. Today - minus 7 deg C and bright sunshine.

lets do all virtual events!!!

At 8pm, the total number of infected is 20.691. Today 369 people recovered their full health, but 368 died. The increase from Yesterday is almost 3,000 new infected.

Our scientists considered Italy can reach the peak at the end of March, this means that probably we can reach more than 50,000 people infected.

Spain, in few days, already has reached the number of 6,000 infected.

Many European Countries decided to close the borders, temporary suspending the Schengen that is the Agreement regarding free circulation in all the European Community.

I have the info that during the next 3 days Kenya will give a rule prohibiting the athletes to run in groups, and really I can't imagine how that rule can be applied, knowing, for example, the behavior of athletes in Iten.

Day after day, I'm Always more doubtful that Olympics can start as planned. Yes. maybe the priority for IOC and Japan are not the athletes, but broadcasting and media. However, without athletes I don't see possible Olympics, and, looking at the Italian trend, that can only anticipate the trend of all the other Western Countries, I don't see many chances the athletes can start a real training for many months.

Actually, you are very uneducated. In the southern Hemisphere it is currently late summer. No case of Corona. So we already have the answer.

I think Japan will organise the olympics. Some countries will just boycott it because they are under lockdown/quarantine. Even in china out of 80k cases, now only 10k are in active state. I guess in next 4months everything will be normal.

The selection procedure will be tough and the timings will be slow (or maybe crazy fast because no dope testing during coronavirus outbreak)

Could anyone from Japan give their perspective on how welcoming their country would be given what’s happening around the world?

Postpone the O Games until 2022.

Move Paris and L.A. back to 2026 and 2030, respectively.

This is the painful, but correct solution.

Young athletes are healthy and not at risk. If they are smart they'll try to catch it early so that they'll be immune by then. Just make it a televised event and forget the crowds. There is no reason to cancel.

I hope that the OG are canceled..too much hype too much money too much heat and humidity.