Did I miss the quarantine in 2018?
How in the world did I run Boston?
ooooooops! My bad. That was the flu.
Did I miss the quarantine in 2018?
How in the world did I run Boston?
ooooooops! My bad. That was the flu.
On the 19th (last Thursday), the UK Government actually downgraded the threat of the C virus. Yet it hasn't been mentioned anywhere in the media.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Coevett wrote:
On the 19th (last Thursday), the UK Government actually downgraded the threat of the C virus. Yet it hasn't been mentioned anywhere in the media.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Yeah. Looks like everyone missed that! UK states that more information about the mortality rate (low) as a significant reason!
280,000 hospitalized because of the flu this season? Can't they be kicked out of hospitals to make room for more important viruses, like - oh, I don't know....
Allen53 wrote:
Three, the overall Crude Fatality Rate varies by location and intensity of transmission 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China e.g. Why is this? What can account for such a stark difference in CFR's from the same disease at the same time in different locations?
.
This question has been addressed in a number of different arenas. This is the key benefit of flattening the curve.
Imagine that our healthcare system has 10 ventilators, and that in our locale a total of 100 people are going to be sick enough to need a ventilator, each for 10 days. And let's even say that everyone who is placed on the ventilator survives.
To make it simple, let's say that in our unflattened curve that 5 people get sick each day.
After 2 days, all of our ventilators are in use, and will be for another 8 days, so all 40 of the patients who get sick enough to need a ventilator over those 8 days will die. On days 11 and 12, 5 people are cured each day and come off the ventilator, in time the 5 getting sick each day to go on it. Again we go 8 days during which each patient dies. So over our 20 day epidemic with 100 patients needing the ventilator, 80 have died.
Let's contrast this with a flattened curve in which we still have 100 total people get sick, but at a rate of 2 per day.
In this case we go 5 days before all the ventilators are in use, and now have 5 days during which each sick patient will die. After that, however, each day has 2 patients coming off the ventilators just in time for the 2 who are sick. In this case, we end up with only 10 deaths.
Never mind that the interventions to flatten the curve (quarantine, case tracking, lots of testing, social distancing) may actually reduce the number of cases.
Lower case fatality rate in the rest of China compared to Hubei, as they initiated these measures BEFORE the healthcare system was overwhelmed.
There have been no deaths in any region until it experienced a shortage of ventilators?
Seriously? That's your interpretation of what Marksch wrote? Like, for real, you thought he was giving a real life example there?
finallyransub17 wrote:
coronasceptic wrote:
There have been no deaths in any region until it experienced a shortage of ventilators?
Seriously? That's your interpretation of what Marksch wrote? Like, for real, you thought he was giving a real life example there?
He didn't say the ventilators are the only cause of deaths, but seems to be saying it'sTHE cause of the HIGH death rates.
Governor Cuomo is on TV whining that the Federal government isn't doing enough to help New York. He wants the Federal government to borrow more money to give to New York.
Why doesn't New York borrow the money itself?
coronasceptic wrote:
Marksch wrote:
And let's even say that everyone who is placed on the ventilator survives.
.
There have been no deaths in any region until it experienced a shortage of ventilators?
of course not. I have left bolded a simplifying assumption from my initial post to illustrate this point. What I hoped to offer was a simplified example of why mortality might differ from one region to another even if the severity of the disease is identical, and the number of sick people is identical, but they arrive at a rate that is more readily managed by a finite healthcare system.
I think a key factor is not just the number of patients who need the ventilators, but that they need them for a LONG time.
coronasceptic wrote:
He didn't say the ventilators are the only cause of deaths, but seems to be saying it'sTHE cause of the HIGH death rates.
No. I'm saying it is A cause of the widely varied death rate in the different parts of China, as initially questioned by Allen53.
Also contributing, was the point that other regions of China, and South Korea and several other nations, got ahead of the epidemic with extensive testing / case isolation / social distancing to both flatten the curve and limit the number of cases.
coronasceptic wrote:
Governor Cuomo is on TV whining that the Federal government isn't doing enough to help New York. He wants the Federal government to borrow more money to give to New York.
Why doesn't New York borrow the money itself?
Of course. NY isn't really part of the US. And the Federal government has no responsibility for what happens to its citizens. I'm surprised it went against its principles and came up with a bail-out package.
Coevett wrote:
On the 19th (last Thursday), the UK Government actually downgraded the threat of the C virus. Yet it hasn't been mentioned anywhere in the media.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Of course not. The media wouldn't want to run with a story like that - it would get people thinking that something is not right. And that would distract from their fearmongering campaign - can't risk that...bad for ratings. ?
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/25/uk-downgrades-covid-19/?️Facts Matter wrote:
“New York has another about five weeks to go for this between now and when they’re going to hit peak hospitalizations, so the fact that they’re stretched right now is worrisome.”
Let me know when it happens, five weeks is a long time there hos. They are not there yet and won't get there. Already signs of it trailing off in NYC. I don't know why you people try to use projections as if they are facts. Nice try, but come back in 5 weeks and we will see.
You might be the stupidest poster I have ever encountered on letsrun. I pray that you are as socially stupid as you are on these message boards so that people are unlikely to interact with you in real life. You are a danger to human life.
This post is aging better every day.
Cuomo states that patients are spending, on average, between 11 and 21 on a ventilator.
They are now authorizing the sharing of ventilators.
This thread didn't age well, or did it?
Coevett wrote:
On the 19th (last Thursday), the UK Government actually downgraded the threat of the C virus. Yet it hasn't been mentioned anywhere in the media.
It's not just the media, and the data was already out there before the 19th. Two things have become abundantly clear that change everything:
1) the "death" rate is not 3%, it's about 0.1%, just like the flu after all;
2) The infection rate is more than 10x as high as the number of known cases
Because of 2, "containment" is impossible, and because of 1, it is not even necessary.
But governments will find it hard to act on this, because not only media but the mob have become existentially bound to the doom. They're in a state of self-destructive pathos that wants things to be bad and will angrily defend their groupthink against all "deniers." That's the real sickness here.
Bad, you're still here, and still haven't shut the f*** up!!
Awesome! It gives us such a fabulous excuse to continue highlighting your *historic* stupidity.
Thanks for that.
So, let's see: US growth of cases seems have to have slowed (for the moment, anyway) to about 25% a day.
So total cases should be around a *QUARTER MILLION* by the end of the month.
You, of course, boldly (and with *incredible* stupidity) proclaimed two weeks ago that it was 'highly unlikely' they'd get as high as 2,600 by then.
So it looks like you missed by roughly a factor of *100*. (And that's too generous, really, cuz you didn't predict it *would* hit that number, you said it was 'very unlikely' to reach it.)
So, we'll very generously call you off by a factor of *100* --even though it should be substantially bigger than that.
Wow. That's not any ordinary stupidity --that's *special* stupidity. Impressive work.
Then, of course, in a desperate attempt to distract from your *world-class* stupidity on that one, you've gone on to make a whole series of other stunningly-stupid conclusions and predictions.
You've told us death-rates were *minuscule*, and that official rates were plunging all around the world, as more people were tested, and would continue to decline indefinitely.
In *real* life, they've INCREASED, steadily --while you've claimed the opposite was happening-- and are continuing to climb everywhere in the world.
The *one* place where it was actually dropping for a while was here in the US. As I told you would happen, that's turned around now, and our rate's been climbing for several days. (It will continue to climb, as it has in Italy, Spain, France, England, Belgium, the Netherlands, and, well, everywhere else.)
Even in the handful of places you blathered on about for days, where rates were unusually low, the rates are steadily climbing --as I told you they would.
If you'd been a tiny bit *less* of a moron, you would've recognized that when the rate was ~4% world-wide, the 5 or 7% we saw in Italy or Spain (both much higher now) *weren't* the 'outliers;' the 0.2% we saw in Germany for a brief while (also much higher and rising now) *WAS*.
But that's exactly why you ARE a moron: you see only what you want to see, regardless of objective fact.
Now you continue to blather your way through alternative lines of *new* horse-sh*t, having failed spectacularly with everything else you've said thus far.
Great. Please continue spouting idiocy. This way the decent folks at least have the satisfaction of continuing to expose you for the gargantuan a**hole you are.
You should keep in your tiny mind, though, that the *epic* stupidity you and other a**holes like you continue to spout every day is actually costing innocent people their livelihoods, and their lives.
You clearly couldn't care less, we know, but you need to be reminded just how colossal a scumbag you are anyway.
P.S. Can you tell us if you've been practicing what you preach? Have you continued to expose yourself to large groups of people, as you urge everyone else to do?
(At least that way the decent and rational folks can look forward to the hope that you and other like-minded a**holes are likely to be early victims of the virus they insist on pretending is *nothing*.
That would at least provide one small silver lining to this catastrophe.)
Why don't you pay a visit to Mar-a-Lago?? You can express your support for your moron's view of life by gathering with other morons and spreading the virus to each other as quickly and widely as possible.
Give the President a big, warm hug for me.
Have a great night now.
Oh, I almost forgot: last week you called me and some others 'morons' for suggesting that total US case might break 100K by the end of he month, and suggested that *your* incredibly stupid prediction would at least be much closer than ours --which you called 'ridiculous.'
How's that workin' out for ya, you dim-witted, sociopathic, pea-brained low-life a**hole??
So long for now, Buddy.