Calm the F**K Down! - What is wrong with everyone?

agip wrote:

some good facts:

A low probability of catching COVID-19

The World Health Organization (“WHO”) released a study on how China responded to COVID-19. Currently, this study is one of the most exhaustive pieces published on how the virus spreads.

The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn’t spread as easily as we first thought or the media had us believe (remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected). According to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well. The variability is large because the infection is based on the type of contact and how long.

The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, “When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78–85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person.

From the CDC’s study on transmission in China and Princess Cruise outbreak -

A growing body of evidence indicates that COVID-19 transmission is facilitated in confined settings; for example, a large cluster (634 confirmed cases) of COVID-19 secondary infections occurred aboard a cruise ship in Japan, representing about one fifth of the persons aboard who were tested for the virus. This finding indicates the high transmissibility of COVID-19 in enclosed spaces

Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine echoes this finding,

“If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%”

According to Dr. Auwaerter, these transmission rates are very similar to the seasonal flu.

Air-based transmission or untraceable community spread is very unlikely.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

agip wrote:

sp2 wrote:

Yes, your silly theory failed quite impressively today. (Maybe cuz you really need more than two or three days of data to infer very much.)

Total deaths up 13% today. The rate of increase continues to climb.

The funny thing is you might *almost* be onto something sensible, but your focus is wrong.

Wigins, of course --being an absolute moron-- has it completely *backwards* as usual.

He says Italy should be *ignored*. This, naturally, is because it exposes his pet 'theories' as stunningly wrong and stupid. (But that keeps happening regardless of Italy, or any other particular country.)

You, at least, sort of *partly* have the right idea, to *focus* on Italy because it's clearly the best model for what's happening here --and here will probably be the best model for what happens in much of the rest of the world. (Spain being probably the next best. Iran, who knows? No one seems to know how much trust can be put in their numbers.)

So, yeah, since Italy's clearly the key *test-case*, now, to figure out how the US and the rest of the world is likely to go, you're right to focus attention on it and do exactly the opposite of what the moron Wigins suggests.

The problem is you really shouldn't be focusing on the deaths, but rather on the growth-rate of new cases. The death will shake out wherever it does. Whether it turns out to be 0.2% as the moron Wigins claims (it won't), or 4%, as most actual *evidence* suggests, or somewhere in-between, it's still gonna be a global catastrophe if it infects 3 billion people.

If it 'only' ends up hitting 10 million, it *won't* be the end of the world, even though it'll still be scary as hell.

The ultimate infection-rate is what will be decisive.

It *does* appear, more and more, that the spread really *has* been shut down in China, Japan, and SK. (Which again, is the *opposite* of what the moron Wigins claims in his latest desperate attempt to distract from his amazing string of ongoing stupidity.)

As you said (yes, I'm actually *agreeing* with you on an essential point), the big *test* now is whether Italy can flatten it out as those places did. If it does happen there, it'll be a very strong indication that the US and the rest of the world might have a decent chance to do the same --in spite of the amazing incompetence and stupidity with which we've handled it all up till now.

(And yeah, the same is true for Spain, which appears to be on a very similar track to the Italian one --just a little bit behind it.)

Both of those places show death-rates which are *horrifying* -and it's pretty clear a lot of that's from their medical systems getting swamped by a huge flood of cases in a short time.

Nothing's gonna stop the continued deaths of lots of the people stuck in that awful pipeline, so what really matters in the bigger picture is whether that flood of cases will peak, and subside, sometime soon.

The growth-rate appears to be dropping, in both those places, though it's still too high to look anything less than terrifying right now.

A few more days of data (a week will likely make it pretty clear) should tell us whether those growth-curves are, in fact, actually flattening like they did in China and SK.

If it happens, we'll have reason to believe the same thing may happen here in a few weeks more, and that will be the first real cause for a little bit of optimism to creep in to this catastrophe.

If it doesn't, all bets are probably off, no matter what fantasies Wigins and other idiots may peddle about 'vanishing' death-rates.

um, glad we agree? Strange that we are coming to the same conclusion but you are against my methods.

But anyway, I have been ignoring cases because cases are completely dependent on testing, and testing is completely apples to oranges around the world, every country has different standards on who is being tested, etc. I read (not confirmed) that some countries test bodies after dying and some don't. I'm sure there is poor data reporting from many hospitals.

I mean I agree completely that if cases went down that would be a good sign. But there are just so many variables on cases. Fewer variables on deaths.

That's my reasoning anyway.

sp2 wrote:

agip wrote:

um, glad we agree? Strange that we are coming to the same conclusion but you are against my methods.

But anyway, I have been ignoring cases because cases are completely dependent on testing, and testing is completely apples to oranges around the world, every country has different standards on who is being tested, etc. I read (not confirmed) that some countries test bodies after dying and some don't. I'm sure there is poor data reporting from many hospitals.

I mean I agree completely that if cases went down that would be a good sign. But there are just so many variables on cases. Fewer variables on deaths.

That's my reasoning anyway.

****************************************

Welp, we haven't quite closed the book on today's stats yet, but it looks like those of us looking for some slightly encouraging news probably didn't get it today.

Yeah, of course I understand your logic that deaths are more 'concrete' than case-numbers, but it's still the total infection-rate that's gonna be the major determinant in whether this a gigantic catastrophe or just a moderate one, I think.

We're not done counting yet, but it's already a bad day for CV deaths. Total up almost 15% today.

Again, the %-rate of increase continues to rise.

Total death-rate on 'official' cases now well over 4%.

Rate *rising* almost everywhere now --including the handful of smaller places morons like BW exclusively focus on, because they're the only places where it looks good.

(It was pretty obvious to anyone with a little sense it would start rising in those places sooner or later --though it may not rise dramatically till a bunch more time passes, or till the spectacular growth in new cases slows down some.)

Italy over **9%** now.

Spain well over 5%.

The Brits nearing 5%.

France at 4%

The Dutch close behind.

The only places that look encouraging right now (in terms of deaths, or death-rates) are Germany and the US. And I'm still pretty certain rates in both places will start climbing in the near future. (Probably as our hospitals get overwhelmed, which is probably no more than 7-10 days away.)

The only places I'm seeing any remotely*good* news today is, as you said, in Iran (but I still don't know if I can put any faith in their numbers), and in case-growth numbers in the US, France, and Germany (the three big places where it's been most horribly explosive for the last week or so).

They're still awful, but they're a bunch better than the last few days, anyway. (It's very hard to see how those would be somehow correlated, but I guess if it holds up for a few days, it might start to look significant.)

The flattening we're desperately looking for in Italy and Spain hasn't clearly emerged yet.

I'll give it a few more days. If it drops under 10% sometime soon, and *stays* there, I'll feel a whole lot more hopeful.

If not,.......

sp2 wrote:

sp2 wrote:

****************************************

Welp, we haven't quite closed the book on today's stats yet, but it looks like those of us looking for some slightly encouraging news probably didn't get it today.

Yeah, of course I understand your logic that deaths are more 'concrete' than case-numbers, but it's still the total infection-rate that's gonna be the major determinant in whether this a gigantic catastrophe or just a moderate one, I think.

We're not done counting yet, but it's already a bad day for CV deaths. Total up almost 15% today.

Again, the %-rate of increase continues to rise.

Total death-rate on 'official' cases now well over 4%.

Rate *rising* almost everywhere now --including the handful of smaller places morons like BW exclusively focus on, because they're the only places where it looks good.

(It was pretty obvious to anyone with a little sense it would start rising in those places sooner or later --though it may not rise dramatically till a bunch more time passes, or till the spectacular growth in new cases slows down some.)

Italy over **9%** now.

Spain well over 5%.

The Brits nearing 5%.

France at 4%

The Dutch close behind.

The only places that look encouraging right now (in terms of deaths, or death-rates) are Germany and the US. And I'm still pretty certain rates in both places will start climbing in the near future. (Probably as our hospitals get overwhelmed, which is probably no more than 7-10 days away.)

The only places I'm seeing any remotely*good* news today is, as you said, in Iran (but I still don't know if I can put any faith in their numbers), and in case-growth numbers in the US, France, and Germany (the three big places where it's been most horribly explosive for the last week or so).

They're still awful, but they're a bunch better than the last few days, anyway. (It's very hard to see how those would be somehow correlated, but I guess if it holds up for a few days, it might start to look significant.)

The flattening we're desperately looking for in Italy and Spain hasn't clearly emerged yet.

I'll give it a few more days. If it drops under 10% sometime soon, and *stays* there, I'll feel a whole lot more hopeful.

If not,.......

************************************

Well, a late, large update kind of wrecked that US new-cases number. It ends up at ~24%.

Still absolutely horrific, but it is substantially better than the sci-fi-nightmare numbers of the *last* 4 days.

We'll see where it goes in the next few days, but with ten days still left in the month, it's awfully tough to see how we *won't* be WAY over 100K cases by then. (When, ya know, the moron Bad Wigins pompously proclaimed we'd have 'NO MORE THAN' 2,600. Morons gonna moron, right?)

And it's awfully hard to see how our hospitals won't be a total catastrophe by then, too --especially as the Orange Baboon and all his crime-partners have done *nothing* to help us prepare for it,... and in fact have done everything they could to f*** things up and block actual human beings from preparing.

AND it's awfully hard to see how our death-rate won't spike gigantically when that happens.

In short order, we're gonna lead the world in new cases, active cases, total cases, hospitalized cases, etc.

And then, shortly after that, we're probably gonna lead the world in deaths, too.

Why? Because we are the stupidest f***ing country on the face of the Earth.

And we elected (or *allowed* to be installed) the stupidest, most ignorant, most incompetent, most deeply corrupt and criminal piece of sh*t you could find under any rock in America to be in charge or *everything*.

We now know for sure he knew all about it from mid-January at the latest (and almost certainly earlier than that), and spent the next 6 weeks doing NOTHING but cover it up as best he could, try to figure out how to use it for political gain, and make sure he and his scum-sucking pals would be be able to profit gigantically from the coming catastrophe.

THANKS AGAIN, Trump-voters. Thanks a f***ing lot!

Kvothe wrote:

sp2 wrote:

************************************

Well, a late, large update kind of wrecked that US new-cases number. It ends up at ~24%.

Still absolutely horrific, but it is substantially better than the sci-fi-nightmare numbers of the *last* 4 days.

We'll see where it goes in the next few days, but with ten days still left in the month, it's awfully tough to see how we *won't* be WAY over 100K cases by then. (When, ya know, the moron Bad Wigins pompously proclaimed we'd have 'NO MORE THAN' 2,600. Morons gonna moron, right?)

And it's awfully hard to see how our hospitals won't be a total catastrophe by then, too --especially as the Orange Baboon and all his crime-partners have done *nothing* to help us prepare for it,... and in fact have done everything they could to f*** things up and block actual human beings from preparing.

AND it's awfully hard to see how our death-rate won't spike gigantically when that happens.

In short order, we're gonna lead the world in new cases, active cases, total cases, hospitalized cases, etc.

And then, shortly after that, we're probably gonna lead the world in deaths, too.

Why? Because we are the stupidest f***ing country on the face of the Earth.

And we elected (or *allowed* to be installed) the stupidest, most ignorant, most incompetent, most deeply corrupt and criminal piece of sh*t you could find under any rock in America to be in charge or *everything*.

We now know for sure he knew all about it from mid-January at the latest (and almost certainly earlier than that), and spent the next 6 weeks doing NOTHING but cover it up as best he could, try to figure out how to use it for political gain, and make sure he and his scum-sucking pals would be be able to profit gigantically from the coming catastrophe.

THANKS AGAIN, Trump-voters. Thanks a f***ing lot!

I agree with you 100% When this over, the republicans who didn't vote for removal should be tried for treason.